Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s rally from 1958.00 exited the bias environment probing fresh relative highs, but still within the noon hour’s range. Entering the final hour higher tried gaining traction, but the 3:10-3:20 window failed its attempt to trend higher. That didn’t prevent extending to fulfill the required retest of 1981.75, probing it by 2 ticks.
So, the attraction above is neutralized. The opportunity to gain traction wasn’t exploited. And the close avoided recovering a relevant level, which keeps alive the topping template. Meanwhile, Friday morning’s relentless plunge was a glimpse of the character expected if and when the trend reverses down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Tagging up.
Retracing the no-bias trending could stop the music again.
This morning’s drop under its 1981.75 bias-up signal originated during the bias-up environment. That’s “no-bias trending” and it requires being retraced back to the bias signal. That seemed difficult when the afternoon bias environment was entered at 1958.00.
But rallying since then is testing 1977.00. Overbought RSIs there suggest its reaction down to 1973.50 will be recovered, perhaps to test 1981.75.
Nothing requires retesting 1981.75 today. If retested, nothing requires its resistance to hold. Often after no-bias trending, the 10:15 print is also retraced, which today is 1990.00.
But a durable downleg is unlikely until at least retesting 1981.75. And nothing prevents starting it from there.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s head & shoulders resolved down overnight by sliding sharply into and out Thursday’s ECB policy statement. Probing a new low under 1.0825 didn’t prevent recovering entirely up to 1.1000 and reversing well into positive territory attacking 1.1220. Extending further Friday is unlikely before testing 1.1105 as support.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1252.00 pullback limit’s retest didn’t undermine the likely retest of the 1277.50-1288.00 target area, which resumed Thursday morning after the ECB reaction. Already testing 1274.00, the target area’s upper-end should be attacked next.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday morning extended to attack 15.70, and now a deeper downleg would be triggered under 15.45.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s volatility tried rallying, twice testing 163-26, but soon reversed down into negative territory under 162-27 to probe a fresh low at 161-19. Closing back above 162-07 would signal that sellers were absorbed, and back above 162-20 would again trigger a buy signal.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down Thursday morning to new held a test of the 37.50 pullback limit before recovering back to the 38.15 area prior highs. Having formed an Ascending Triangle, at least a brief probe of fresh highs is likely.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength above 1.70 and under 1.80 didn’t extend the recovery but it did help to absorb any shock from the news so that probing 1.80 Friday would be likely to trend higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday afternoon’s rig count still influences price action by potentially triggering reactions in Crude Oil. But there is otherwise no relevant report..
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1085.25 | 1974.75 |
| …would target | 1991.50 | 1981.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1977.25 | 1966.75 |
| …would target | 1970.50 | 1960.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.