Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 29, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s econ reports is high-profile or influential to price action. But the week soon gets busier with the FOMC meeting set to begin.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2936.25 | 2938.25 |
| …would target | 2941.50 | 2943.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2925.75 | 2927.75 |
| …would target | 2920.75 | 2922.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Silencing sellers.
They waited, they pounced, they failed.
The overnight sideways range did break, in reaction to an econ report (GDP) at the end of the pre-open 60-90 minute window.
GDP rarely influences price action, let alone triggering a 7-point surge to 2932.00.
None of which changes the setup of a sideways overnight range’s 60-90 minute breakout being likely to retrace. Which dropping through the open did, back to its 2926.50 upper-end and through it to touch the 2920.50 bias-down target.
A bounce tested the 2924.50 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, which was recovered in time to trigger late no-bias. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play, 2934.00 and 2940.75. Being a late no-bias, neither objective would become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.
Meanwhile, this being a Friday, a failed trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. And Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. The bounce has tested and retested 2929.75, and holding 2925.25 as support would suggest sellers’ influence is done, and the session is vulnerable to trending up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… narrow ranges, say “hello” to Friday Factors.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2928.00 open was on the trajectory of a collapse from 2935.00, coming out of an otherwise sideways overnight range. The first hour fell enough both to renew its bias-down signal, and to fulfill its 2914.25 renewed bias-down target. That was two hours following the last pre-open bounce up to 2935.00, which took 90 minutes to retrace by noon. The balance of the session ranged sideways again, supported by 2930.00, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AMZN and INTC post-close earnings. A last-minute break fell to 2926.00-2928.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute break extended down to 2922.00 at the Globex open, and there began yet another narrow sideways range. A brief reaction up to 2926.50 quickly resolved down and extended to attack 2917.00. The extension was recovered by midnight, and soon 2926.50 was also attacked. Its reaction down through Europe’s opens has now recovered back up to 2926.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yet another narrow sideways range, means another opportunity for the 60-90 minute Globex false breakout setup. Suddenly trending 60-90 minutes pre-open usually retraces back to the overnight range, and often back through it in the opposite direction. Even waiting until the open can reflect weak-handed sponsorship, regardless of its productivity, like yesterday morning’s 21-point collapse that was retraced entirely. Speaking of which, yesterday’s retracement never became a reversal back above the collapse’s 2935.00 origin, but the 2928.00 open was retraced by the bias environment’s exit. That’s another instance (to another degree) of strength that undermines sellers. Undermines sellers, but doesn’t prevent them from attempting to reverse the trend down, like yesterday morning. They’ll need to influence the open and the morning if they intend to influence the day. The alternative won’t necessarily rally, but would be vulnerable to a sudden rally attempt gaining traction — and Fridays are the most vulnerable to sudden trending attempts.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2924.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2920.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2932.00 | 2934.00 |
| …would target | 2938.75 | 2940.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2922.25 | 2924.50 |
| …would target | 2917.25 | 2919.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS TESTED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.