Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Hasn’t slowed.
Fresh highs into, during, and out of the noon hour.
This morning’s bullish setups were all influential to absorbing the open’s attempts to reverse down. 
And the bullish setups were all influential to probing or trending higher this morning. And the bullish setups were all satisfied by noon.
But the rally kept on.
Now this afternoon’s 2562.25 bias-up signal has triggered. Its 2569.25 bias-up target has been attacked to within 2 points. It should be attacked to within 3 ticks at 2568.50 — perhaps up to 2570.00 — before a sell signal can be reliable.
Closing above the 2548.00-2555.00 range would next target 2606.00. Closing under the range would signal that upside momentum had lapsed. If the latter, then I would expect the close to be under Friday’s 2539.00 high to avoid confirming its breakout.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar isn’t very busy, and its highlight might not be announced due to the government shutdown. That’s the JOLTS report, which can be a catalyst for a reaction following an influential Employment Situation report.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2561.75 | 2562.25 |
| …would target | 2568.75 | 2569.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2550.00 | 2550.50 |
| …would target | 2540.25 | 2540.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fulfilling setups.
Reversal attempt fails, upside rules.
The open was greeted at the 2532.00 earlier Globex low. The Globex-flip setup was formed, and could only trigger or not trigger. A dip to 2526.50 was recovered halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, 
missing an opportunity to suggest that bearish reinforcements were being attracted. Still overlapping 2532.00 at 9:45 was a missed opportunity to entrench a reversal down.
But momentum had not reversed up. Another dip tested the 2524.50 bias-down signal, and also recovered. Fresh post-open highs up to 2540.00 weren’t maintained in time to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal. Which the grace period was still testing, to trigger noN-bias.
Not no-bias which would require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Not bias-up requiring meeting its target. But noN-bias, which could fluctuate or trend regardless of the bias parameters.
Actually, having failed to reverse the momentum down, we had been discussing the likelihood for probing higher anyway. Friday’s session-long setup was still likely to probe or trend higher this morning. And the failed Globex-flip could be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But “no-bias trending” would have required retracing down to the bias-up signal, a noN-bias rally wouldn’t require retracing.
Currently, the 2551.75 overnight high is being attacked to within 1 point; it doesn’t require a retest. The bear market rally’s 2548.00-2555.00 target area is being met; it doesn’t require a thorough test. Back under 2543.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The rally is otherwise free to extend higher.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Extending higher, or not.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2483.00 open had recovered from probing overnight under Thursday’s low down to 2438.50. And having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above its 2474.00 afternoon high formed a “session-long rally” setup. Every timing window did probe its prior timing window’s high, except for the last two which consolidated under the noon hour’s 2439.00 high, back down to 2522.50. Usually only one window is an exception, but the setup still succeeded in avoiding any downtrending as it closed around 2531.00-2533.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up, albeit slightly and still within Friday afternoon’s range to 2537.00. Its reaction down to 2532.00 was quickly absorbed by extending to fresh highs attacking 2552.00. Trending down since then had retraced the 2532.00 earlier Globex low by midnight. Extending down since then has been probing negative territory, attacking the lower-end of Friday afternoon’s range at 2523.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Successful session-long signals tend to extend through the following morning. Similarly, the missing window tends to be fulfilled the following morning, aggressively to compensate for the delay. Either way, the burden of proof is definitely on sellers. In this weekend’s Saturday Review we discussed the likeliest way for way sellers to retake control being through a Globex-flip setup. A Globex-flip is now being threatened as the overnight probe above Friday’s high has retraced back down to the 2532.50 earlier Globex low. And with the 2552.00 overnight high having fulfilled the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2548.00-2555.00, reversing down could be that much more durable. Until the setup triggers, its reversal can be avoided and the morning can still probe fresh highs. And greeting the open with a Globex-flip that doesn’t trigger can be as bullish as the setup would have been bearish. Closing any higher would then target 2606.00, still all within the context of being a temporary bear market rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above above 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2524.50 bias-down signal.