Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/5/19) …That’s going to leave a mark.
The Christmas low had reacted up considerably before ranging sideways into year-end. And the new year’s first week threatened to start retracing the post-Christmas rally. Instead, the rally may have resumed.
What if it has resumed, and what if it hasn’t, actually? What levels and behaviors will tell us either way? And what is already predictable, or reliable, or likely as the market’s next step Monday?
These questions, and many more that were asked by attendees, are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDFC, AAPL, GE, SYMC, UA, WDC, MDB, MSFT, FB
transcript
—————– (01/05/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Mark G: gm
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/05/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm
ljr iPad: gm
—————– (01/05/2019 09:48) —————–
Mark G: v-bottom suggests that the decline may not be over?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:52) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:58) —————–
David B: is a session long decline or rally session be viewed differently because this was on a friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was the market discounting thursday the unemployment report is part of the rally for friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:01) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:02) —————–
David B: if the fed did not speak and it was just the job number we may not have rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: yes
Mark G: if Fed signaled a policy change with respect to balance sheet, we may be heading up near term still/
—————– (01/05/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: longer term – up or down retracing all of Trump rally
—————– (01/05/2019 10:08) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: WDFC big run up in 2018, earnings we’d
ljr iPad: Wednesday
—————– (01/05/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: Has the correlation with bonds over the last few days showing mony moving out and into stocks?
Mark G: k
David B: money
—————– (01/05/2019 10:12) —————–
ljr iPad: AAPL
—————– (01/05/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: buyable low?
David B: GE,SYMC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: UA,WDC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:27) —————–
ljr iPad: for wdfc is there an upper target or objective?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:28) —————–
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/05/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: MSFT
ljr iPad: FB, MSFT
—————– (01/05/2019 10:35) —————–
ljr iPad: MDB
—————– (01/05/2019 10:44) —————–
David B: bears markets usually take months and possibly years to change. Wouldn’t one want to look at the odds that this is going to resolve back down? and if not does that mean we were never in a bear market?
David B: bear market
—————– (01/05/2019 10:46) —————–
ljr iPad: thx for today.
—————– (01/05/2019 10:47) —————–
David B: will we know that shortly or could take weeks?
Mark G: if the low 2317 is retested would the time matter – the longer it’s delayed the likelier to break lower?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:51) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings plays into the overall market. is the market expecting the worst with no growth?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:53) —————–
Bill G: If the mkt makes a new low shortly.\, more room for a larger rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:54) —————–
Mark G: that is different from retesting a Feb prior low – the longer it took the liklier the break lower became
David B: does gold have a correlation with stocks or is it just like bonds?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:57) —————–
Bill G: How much lower than the recent low can still be considered only a test of that low?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:59) —————–
David B: can any news events or things the market is concern about change a market on a dime from a bear market to bullish or the opposite. Like we ar seeing with the fed and china
David B: are
—————– (01/05/2019 11:02) —————–
Bill G: thanks
Mark G: valuation crowd is saying at 2350 earnings could be zero so we may not go down more unless earnings are negative
—————– (01/05/2019 11:07) —————–
Mark G: :)
David B: it seems like now they are buying the dips where before they were selling rallies?
—————– (01/05/2019 11:09) —————–
David B: yes so they are no accumulative?
David B: not
David B: ok
David B: Thanks
Mark G: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2536.75 | 2537.00 |
| …would target | 2543.50 | 2543.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2524.00 | 2524.50 |
| …would target | 2515.50 | 2516.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Each timing window of Friday’s session-long rally probed its prior timing window’s high. The usual noon hour exception probed fresh highs, but the afternoon bias environment did not. Which made the final hour likely to probe at least the afternoon bias environment’s high.
But the final hour did not probe fresh highs. Momentum had died out, exiting the bias environment within the noon hour’s range, and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range. Successful session-long signals tend to extend through the following morning. Similarly, the missing window tends to be fulfilled the following morning, aggressively to compensate for the delay. The burden of proof is definitely on sellers.
Having closed above 2525.25, the next higher objective in-play is 2548.00-2555.00. Closing any higher would then target 2606.00, all within the context of being a temporary bear market rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down Friday morning to 1.1410 retraced Thursday’s recovery, which was itself recovered Friday back up to 1.1485 where any higher close should confirm a new rally leg underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing 1300.00 overnight was reversed down Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report to 1278.00, but recovered back above 1284.00 to keep alive the rally. Nevertheless, 1284.00 must continue holding as support to avoid a deeper reversal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight up to 15.95 reversed back down Friday to 15.65 in reaction to the Employment Situation report. But Friday’s intraday range was essentially an inside day compared to Thursday, so momentum has not reversed down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh high overnight up to 148-27 was reversed down sharply in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. A Double Bottom formed at 146-19 which is “lower prior highs” from Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout. Closing back above 147-08 and 147-16 would signal the knee-jerk reaction had been absorbed and momentum was reversing up.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 43.35-44.15 pullback limit was ultimately attacked only to within 20 cents before greeting Friday’s delayed EIA report back in rally mode, retesting the 47.00 buy signal up to 49.25. Closing under 47.00 would increase the likelihood for testing the pullback limit. Closing above 47.00 would still allow the pullback limit’s test from a position of strength that is likely to recover.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The delayed EIA report had little effect on price, which ranged narrowly sideways after having briefly probed a fresh low overnight. Closing above 3.15 would start to reverse the trend back up, or at least create a position of strength to help absorb further dips. Meanwhile, interesting research here on the possible cold wave coming.