Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2007.00 | 2004.75 |
| …would target | 2012.75 | 2010.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1999.75 | 1997.50 |
| …would target | 1993.50 | 1991.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Maximum flux behavior!
Topping pattern still being traced.
In Saturday’s discussion of the potential topping pattern, I noted that the real fireworks might not appear until Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. Monday’s action could be choppy and frustrating, recovering from a shallow gap down — whether recovering a little or a lot — to close only slightly positive.
Even more frustratingly, recovering from this morning’s shallow gap down has avoided triggering a bias. The 1986.00 bias-down target was touched at the open, and the 1992.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
A retest of the bias-down target is not in-play. Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters are not in-play. The bias levels remain influential if tested, but not with any specific consequence.
Price action is still tracking the broader template, now having recovered the shallow gap down back up into slightly positive territory at 1998.00. But it’s early. The recovery might fail; extending to fresh highs might not be rejected. Holding 1995.00 would keep alive the upside probing.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
RSIs diverging positively at the 1985.50 low produced a bounce up to 1989.50. That was reversed down to momentarily probe a fresh low at 1984.50, popping up again back above the 1986.00 bias-down target.
A post-open fresh low can’t be discounted from even the most bullish scenario. Regardless, extending down through the opening 15 minutes or beginning to recover should be predictive of the balance of the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Threading the needle
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Already firming up to 1995.50 ahead of Friday’s payrolls, its reaction spiked up to 2002.25. Reacting down sharply into and out of the open fell to 1984.00. Recovering to fresh highs at 2007.50 reacted down sharply again, back down to 1991.00. A late bounce enabled closing positive at 1996.00-1997.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately dipping at Sunday’s open was able to hold 1990.00. Relatively narrow ranging back up to 1994.50 was momentarily pierced up to 1996.00 after Europe’s opens. But that only stretched the rubber band,m which snapped back down to 1988.50 and 1985.25. Now a bounce is testing 1988.50 from below.
If, then…
Thursday night’s firming had already met the next higher objective at 1993.00. Its room for noise at 1997.25 and 2001.00 was met and held intraday Friday. Closing much higher today could invalidate the rally as being only a temporary correction before resuming the decline. Meanwhile, Friday’s new high close all but ensures an immediate pullback would recover into a new upleg. So, a successful top would close only slightly higher today — regardless of the intraday range and pattern. Recovering from a slightly lower open would be that path’s likely first couple of steps.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1988.00 would be likely to hold the 1986.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1992.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.