Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Anti-gravity sucks, too.
TODAY’S MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD ONE HOUR EARLY AT 3:03 PM ET, AND I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE SESSION’S LAST HOUR.
The noon hour had tested this afternoon’s 2002.50 bias-up signal, but it wasn’t triggered. That hasn’t prevented probing above it to 2007.50 in what is called “no-bias trending.” The last time we saw that was way, way back this morning.
No bias-trending requires retracing at least to the bias signal that should have defined the no-bias range. This morning’s is 1993.75, and it still requires retest. Meanwhile, 2992.50 is being tested as the bias environment lapse comes within view.
The noon hour’s pattern suggests a fresh session high would print. It also suggests the higher would be vulnerable to reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under prior highs would be bearish.
Otherwise, not reversing down obviously by the time the final hour begins, would remain vulnerable to extending higher into the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up and extension above the 1.0900 buy signal was extended higher Friday, to within just several pips of its 1.1050 objective.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The lower-end of the 1274.00-1288.00 noise range above the 1265.00 target was tested Friday, opening the door to a reversal setup forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s surge finally neutralized the longstanding attraction above at the 15.70 gap up above what was all prior highs at the time, and also filled an interim gap close. It’s also a breakout to fresh relative highs, but a second consecutive higher close to confirm is unlikely on Mondays. Back under 15.55 would signal the surge had failed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down twice Friday — both before and after the Employment Situation report — tested fresh lows around 161-24 support that had defined the week’s earlier low. The drop’s origin after closing above 164-14 suggests the dip is only temporary. Closing back above 162-20 would signal the trend reversing up.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The daily probe of slightly higher highs was accelerated Friday by a surge to attack 36.00 which allows raising the sell signal to 33.95.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight and Friday followed Thursday’s poor EIA reaction for having greeted the news from a position of weakness. Recovering the lows through the close didn’t alter what is still an ongonig series of lower lows and lower highs, whose buy signal is triggered above 1.70.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s busy calendar isn’t very influential to price action. But the afternoon’s Fed speaker is unusual timing that could exacerbate any reaction.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2004.75 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2011.25 | 2009.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.25 | 1993.00 |
| …would target | 1988.25 | 1986.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Both ends of the spectrum.
Payrolls’ surge drops back into the range.
The pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at 1995.00. Its knee-jerk reaction surged to 2002.25, which reacted down quickly to 1988.00. The open was greeted back at 1995.00.
A post-open dip back under 1993.00 targeted a retest of the pre-open bounce, or at least to within 3 ticks, which was fulfilled down to 1988.50. That post-open dip extended to 1984.00.
And that post-open dip held its test of the 1985.00 bias-down signal. So, dspite having tested the 1993.75 bias-up signal, and offsetting retest of it was put into play. The retest has been fulfilled already. In fact, it is extending to also test 1997.25 resistance.
This is still a no-bias environment. At least a pullback to the 1993.75 bias-up signal is likely at some point. Its test might hold and launch a retest of the preopen high, although its retest isn’t required. Retesting the pre-open high first would be even more vulnerable to reversing back down.