Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Already attacking fresh highs up to 1996.00 ahead of the Employment Situation report then surged on the news. This morning’s 2001.00 bias-up target was probed by 5 ticks before reacting down sharply. And then reacting down considerably. Yesterday’s 1991.00 close was probed by 3 points down to 1988.00.
Now this morning’s 1993.75 bias-up signal is being tested again pre-open. Its resistance could launch a fresh low down to 1986.00 where not recovering would mean trending straight down through the noon hour.
Otherwise, the 1993.75 bias-up signal could be probed, or even triggered, but still not assure trending up any more than is necessary to correct or retest the pre-open highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Mildly optimistic, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s choppy ranging duplicated a choppy overnight that had probed new highs attacking 1288.00. Rallying into the afternoon extended to higher highs attacking the rally’s 1293.00 potential to within 5 ticks. No traction was gained for the effort, despite shrugging off anxiousness ahead of Friday’s payrolls report to produce a new recovery high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
After firming to touch 1993.00, a pullback fell to 1987.00 through Europe’s opens. Consolidating there was reversed up, recovering to fresh highs at 1994.50.
If, then…
The overnight probe of fresh highs is so far a singular probe, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would require intraday retest. Having produced fresh highs overnight after dipping under yesterday’s close, greeting the open under the overnight highs would be vulnerable to tending straight down this morning — at least, it would be a last line of defense. Recovering that deep of a dip through the open, or simply avoiding the dip altogether, would be similarly vulnerable to trending straight up.
First Trade…
Preliminary indications are not considered before an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1996.25 | 1993.75 |
| …would target | 2003.25 | 2000.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1987.50 | 1985.00 |
| …would target | 1981.50 | 1979.00 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Being within the orbit of Wednesday night’s 1987.00 highs made their retest likely, despite not being required. Testing the upside attraction right at the bias environment’s exit could have gone either way. Resistance could have repelled the recovery, but instead resistance accelerated the recovery higher.
Potential to 1993.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks. That is the best singular representation of a cluster of targets in this area. There being potential for a knee-jerk reaction to the morning’s news, we should be aware of outliers at 1997.25 and 2001.00.
The recovery high close doesn’t prevent reacting down at Friday’s Employment Situation report, no more than the rally’s momentum assures reacting up. But reacting down would likely be only temporary, at least until retesting Thursday’s close from below. And since Thursday’s rally gained no traction for its effort, extending durably higher requires gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Fearless.
Still probing fresh highs ahead of oncoming news.
This morning’s no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of it 1986.00 bias-up signal. It was a late signal, so the test wasn’t required. But it was fulfilled anyway.
And still being within the orbit of overnight highs attacking 1988.00, their retest also became likely. That was done by fresh highs testing 1989.50.
Reacting down while entering the final hour overlapped the bias environment’s high. That didn’t help to confirm whether traction was gained by the bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high. Fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window would still do that.
Good luck with that. Although there remains upside potential to test 1993.00, it’s not required. And sponsorship often becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report.
So extending higher is possible, but difficult , if not unlikely. Drifting back down toward or to session lows is likelier.