Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Repeated testing of the decline’s 1.0865 support finally reacted up Thursday to trigger the 1.0900 buy signal targeting 1.1050.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through 1242.00 and then above 1248.00 Thursday was extended to test 1261.00, still targeting fresh highs up to 1265.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending its recent recovery Thursday tested the 15.15 buy signal whose recovery puts into play a test of the 15.70 gap above.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday failed to confirm Tuesday’s deep drop by ranging narrowly around 162-14, allowing Thursday’s surge to test 163-14 whose recovery would signal the drop had ended, and also 163-24 whose recovery would signal a new upleg underway. Both tests reacted down initially.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing slightly higher again Thursday above 35.00 still continued overlapping prior highs, leaving the door open to triggering the sell signal that was raised Wednesday to 33.00.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength. Fresh lows overnight Its favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news momentarily probed positive territory before dipping back down to test the open’s gap. That neutralizes the gap’s attraction below, and allows a recovery above 1.70 to seal a bottom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open monthly payrolls is often isolated as the only econ report. But Friday afternoon keeps the influential items active with the rig count and a Fed speaker.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1983.75 | 1981.25 |
| …would target | 1988.50 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1978.00 | 1975.50 |
| …would target | 1971.50 | 1969.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Crossing the street.
Opening weakness ultimately holds critical support.
The 1982.00 open was 2-3 points under yesterday’s close. Post-open action trended down immediately — and substantially, attacking the 1975.50 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. A bounce resolved down to retest 1975.50 by a couple of ticks.
Another bounce pierced it yet again. That last test invoked the grace period, and ultimately the 1975.50 bias-down signal did not trigger. So, this is a late no-bias environment.
An offsetting test of the 1986.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Its test isn’t required since the bias signaled late. But already fresh post-open highs just touched 1983.00.
Meanwhile, the 1982.00 open is being overlapped. It is natural resistance. But fresh session highs remain likely so long as pullbacks hold 1979.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last reaction down from testing 1986.00 is indicating an open 2-3 points under yesterday’s cash and futures sessions closes. Not much of a differential, but not very indicative of the choppy overnight range. There’s no shortage of opinion, but it is very divergent.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.