Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy, but only one item has a reliable track record for influencing price action. That’s ISM, which is especially influential around other industrial reports.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Premature evacuation.
Basing resolves up before laying solid groundwork.
Not gapping down had already indicated strong-handed sellers weren’t retaking control this morning. Fresh lows became likelier as buyers further delayed retaking control, too.
The no-bias environment still had room up to its 1953.00 bias-up signal, so long as that defined the range’s upper-end. But its test wasn’t required, and wasn’t even likely.
1953.00 was tested, anyway. Breaking higher well after the open gravitated up to 1952.00, and then surged to 1956.00. The bias environment exit is fluctuating narrowly around 1953.00.
Not gapping down kept the market in Friday’s orbit, attracted back to Friday’s highs and higher. Its 1952.00-1953.00 resistance is now neutralized. Fresh highs would all but target at least 1960.00, if not also fresh highs above 1969.00.
Back under this morning’s 1945.00 open would signal the bounce had ended already.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1968.75 | 1960.00 |
| …would target | 1968.50 | 1966.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1950.50 | 1948.00 |
| …would target | 1945.50 | 1942.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding pattern
Flat open not attracting new sponsorship.
Friday’s cash session close equated to 1946.00. The overnight to 1928.00 was recovered to probe above 1946.00 by a couple of points before the open. Post-open action has not extended that recovery.
Instead, the open immediately dipped back down to 1941.00-1942.00. Not gapping down had made a durable downleg unlikely. But it didn’t require a recovery, and there hasn’t been one.
The pre-open recovery to 1948.00 is being touched again now. It’s both too late and too early to be reliable for extending higher. Nevertheless, during this no-bias environment, its 1953.00 bias-up signal can be tested.
Back under 1944.00 would likely also test the 1940.25 bias-down signal. Testing 1937.00 was likely, too, until this bounce back to 1948.00.
Regardless of this morning’s range, its delayed resolution does offer another suggestion that topping is underway.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop’s recovery extended to 1948.00. Reacting down pre-open to 1944.00 is essentially ranging around 1946.00, a big line in the sand.
Resuming the recovery post-open would be credible for extending higher throughout the day. Beware an initial gain that doesn’t hold.
Backing-and-filling could still recover — but must be recovering through the open to avoid retracing much of the overnight drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.