Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Down the up staircase.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight through the 1952.00-1953.00 objective attacked 1969.00. It was all retraced into and out of Friday’s open to pierce back under Thursday’s 1949.50 high. The balance of the session gyrated down to 1943.00. No traction was gained. But 1952.00-1953.00 was rejected.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s opening dip to 1938.00 was soon recovered up to 1947.00. And that was the last of that. Returning to the open’s low finally broke lower on the way to testing 1928.00. Ranging choppily up to 1934.50 for several hours ended abruptly by spiking up 11 points to test the resistance of this morning’s 1940.25 bias-down signal on China’s news. Its reaction down to 1931.50 was recovered entirely, and consolidating there has broken higher to 1943.50.
If, then…
Not gaining traction Friday despite trending down from open to close had made extending down today unlikely without delay — not without gapping down significantly. Significantly, as in under 1937.00 or 1930.00.Having tested 1930.00 overnight, just opening positive above 1946.00 would allow not only probing back into Friday’s range at 1952.00-1953.00, but would also allow retesting Friday’s pre-open attack on 1969.00. Now having tested 1930.00 overnight, opening under 1937.00 could marginalize buyers for the day.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1946.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1940.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1939.00 would be likely to trigger the 1940.25 bias-down signal.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Gaaamme oonnn!
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight trading, which has already begun… poorly.
The Universe, week of February 29 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Welcome to the first annual Leap Year edition of The Universe. In honor of the special day, cannabis stocks have been leaping, too.
Bad puns aside, patterns continued improving. Only a couple more “up” qualifiers above heir 4-week moving averages, but that’s still the best level in months. Most of last week’s improvement was among “down” qualifiers, whose ranks dropped dramatically while many of their number were upgraded to “flat.”
That’s not to say every stock is coming back. Many still trade sporadically, if at all. I’ll be winnowing them out of the coverage soon. Higher-profile CARA took its biggest tumble yet to new lows. But this is the first week in awhile without new lows ni GWPH, and its volume pattern is attractive.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for February 29, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 12.05% |
| trends* | # flat: | 27 | 32.53% |
| # down: | 46 | 55.42% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.009 | 0.205 | up |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | flat |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.005 | 0.009 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.006 | up |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | up |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 37.750 | 51.450 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.110 | down |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | flat |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | down |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.048 | 0.088 | up |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.014 | 0.033 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | down |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/27/16) …
Last week’s Saturday Review described the more bearish path being to first probe fresh highs. Monday and Friday did just that. Did the interim dip refuel the rally for much more upside? How seriously should we take any new downlegs? These questions are discussed during this week’s Saturday Review, along with other questions and comments from subscribers.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
PANW, CAT, RARE, FB, BABA, HD, ULTA, NFLX, AMD, UNG, RYCEY, NKE, SBUX, EQIX, TITN, SWFT, TNA, DUST
02/27/2016 09:32:21 MK: yes
02/27/2016 09:32:22 Mark Glezer: gm
02/27/2016 09:32:23 sm: good
02/27/2016 09:32:23 tom: good
02/27/2016 09:32:24 Bill G: good
02/27/2016 09:32:30 ap: gm
02/27/2016 09:44:00 MK: so why are we not talking higher objectives?
02/27/2016 09:49:31 Mark Glezer: why gapping down too much wouldn’t be sentiment extreme & attract more buyers than sellers?
02/27/2016 09:51:20 MK: wasn’t the new trend high close was thursday?
02/27/2016 09:51:32 MK: oh ok nevermind
02/27/2016 09:58:27 casjf: do lower gaps remain outstanding forever until they are recovered, or can they ever be neutralized in another way?
02/27/2016 09:58:28 sm: What does two days of ‘obscure signals’ say about the charcter of the current market?
02/27/2016 09:58:50 Mark Glezer: higher first is still likelier than down ?
02/27/2016 10:00:43 sm: bias not being clear
02/27/2016 10:05:11 Bill G: SentimenTrader pointed out stock index futures as of Tues , small traders have record short positions. A jump of $5 billion to $8 billion over previous wk. Quite bullish.
02/27/2016 10:06:48 Josey: Looks like the cover rally
02/27/2016 10:07:31 MK: yeah bill i think that if we remailn higher as we creep towards end of quarter people will start to chase performance
02/27/2016 10:07:33 Josey: Panw CAT
02/27/2016 10:07:39 tom: rare
02/27/2016 10:07:43 MK: to make up for a horrendous 4q and start to 1q
02/27/2016 10:07:52 builder from Oregon: FB
02/27/2016 10:08:00 Bill G: I would agree
02/27/2016 10:08:09 Mark Glezer: BABA – played quick move from 69 to 65, any short potential on a bounce to 69.7 again?
02/27/2016 10:08:11 tom: HD,ULTA
02/27/2016 10:08:37 MK: NFLX
02/27/2016 10:08:40 MK: AMD
02/27/2016 10:09:15 MK: RYCEY
02/27/2016 10:09:44 MK: NKE
02/27/2016 10:11:10 MK: SBUX
02/27/2016 10:11:23 MK: EQIX
02/27/2016 10:11:25 MK: TITN
02/27/2016 10:11:37 MK: SWFT
02/27/2016 10:17:14 tom: thx
02/27/2016 10:17:32 casjf: UNG – if natural gas breaks up, would like to know support and level above which is a breakout
02/27/2016 10:18:47 MK: sweet going to increase my FB short
02/27/2016 10:20:04 Mark Glezer: Thu u said u wanted to see another bounce b4 shorting
02/27/2016 10:22:14 Mark Glezer: k
02/27/2016 10:24:44 MK: Ulta was Earnings
02/27/2016 10:24:48 MK: i was short into that
02/27/2016 10:24:49 MK: =)
02/27/2016 10:25:22 MK: this is a HF darling
02/27/2016 10:28:56 MK: 2011
02/27/2016 10:32:44 MK: European
02/27/2016 10:34:39 MK: the market LOVES hillary
02/27/2016 10:34:47 MK: i think thats the rub
02/27/2016 10:36:49 sm: Interesting observation. Thanks.
02/27/2016 10:37:14 Mark Glezer: lol
02/27/2016 10:37:18 MK: haha
02/27/2016 10:43:43 MK: just curious if that hight on the 16th deserves another higher close
02/27/2016 10:43:46 MK: as a breakout?
02/27/2016 10:44:32 MK: ok
02/27/2016 10:44:34 MK: next stock
02/27/2016 10:44:39 MK: no worries on the ADRs
02/27/2016 10:44:42 MK: as they are hard to chart
02/27/2016 10:50:38 MK: ok
02/27/2016 10:50:41 MK: interesting
02/27/2016 10:52:46 builder from Oregon: TNA
02/27/2016 10:55:23 MK: re: TITN total fraud
02/27/2016 10:56:20 MK: pennant
02/27/2016 10:56:21 MK: ?
02/27/2016 10:56:54 MK: that pattern in december/jan
02/27/2016 10:57:08 MK: similar to the other one that was expandiing
02/27/2016 10:57:25 MK: no 2015
02/27/2016 10:57:37 MK: the pattern you drew at the highs
02/27/2016 10:57:46 MK: you drew a similar pattern
02/27/2016 10:57:49 MK: on a different stock
02/27/2016 10:57:54 MK: that was the opposite
02/27/2016 10:57:55 MK: NO
02/27/2016 10:58:11 MK: the Dec/jan 2014 pattern
02/27/2016 10:58:16 MK: is the same pattern
02/27/2016 10:58:19 MK: as you did in a different stock
02/27/2016 10:58:23 MK: only it was flipped
02/27/2016 10:58:25 MK: yes
02/27/2016 10:58:30 MK: i like that
02/27/2016 10:58:36 MK: i just never noticed them
02/27/2016 10:58:40 MK: so thanks
02/27/2016 10:58:44 MK: i’m going to keep an eye out
02/27/2016 10:59:24 MK: thanks have a good weekend
02/27/2016 11:00:52 MK: can you do DUST if we are charting ETNs
02/27/2016 11:03:00 MK: I’m massively long
02/27/2016 11:03:07 MK: from around here
02/27/2016 11:03:16 MK: 4.70ish average
02/27/2016 11:04:01 MK: just looking for 8
02/27/2016 11:04:11 MK: cuious if thats an appropriate target
02/27/2016 11:04:32 MK: ok
02/27/2016 11:04:33 MK: tahnks
02/27/2016 11:04:51 MK: have a good one
02/27/2016 11:04:59 Josey: Ty, great session!
02/27/2016 11:05:06 MK: still think we’re going to 2000
02/27/2016 11:05:07 MK: =)
02/27/2016 11:05:13 sm: thanks
02/27/2016 11:05:15 MK: see you guys there in a couple week
02/27/2016 11:05:27 Mark Glezer: thx
Saturday Review Link – UPDATED
UPDATED MEETING ROOM ID…
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.