Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1955.75 | 1953.00 |
| …would target | 1962.25 | 1959.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1942.75 | 1940.25 |
| …would target | 1935.75 | 1933.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon probed fresh session lows, but it didn’t melt down. That’s significant, since that was the vulnerability. Once breaking back under 1952.00-1953.00 and extending down to 1943.00, the next bounce was reversed to 1942.00 into the close. But only grudgingly.
Meanwhile, avoiding a new trend high close on a Friday prevented the rally from further entrenching itself. Closing under 1952.00-1953.00 on the same day it was tested suggests that upside momentum is lapsing. And closing back under Thursday’s prior high prevents putting into play higher targets.
None of which broke under a prior session’s prior low. Monday’s “lower prior highs” were tested throughout Friday’s last 60-90 minutes, but not broken.
There’s still a path to extending higher, or at least to backing-and-filling up within Monday’s range. But now there’s also a path to launching the next downleg. The latter path is the scenario described during last weekend’s Saturday Review, which had anticipated fresh highs. We’ll update that during this weekend’s Saturday Review (login link will be sent overnight).
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pause in the ongoing decline was compensated by gapping down and extending relatively sharply lower. No immediate bounce would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing to 1242.00 resistance Thursday had failed to signal another upleg underway. Friday’s lower low now allows closing above 1227.50 to trigger a new upleg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only overlapping 15.15 support Thursday didn’t indicate whether its test had held, but Friday’s slide indicated it had not. Closing back above 15.15 would put back into play a test of 15.70.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday retraced 61.9% of Tuesday’s false break lower. That’s natural support, and constructive to the rally effort if Monday’s open were to gap up above Friday’s high to 166-12 and trend higher intraday.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending even higher overnight after testing the 32.70 bounce limit was able to probe fresh highs Friday up to 34.70. Reversing that back into negative territory suggests a bigger top is forming, and back under 32.55 would resume the decline.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not gapping up Friday prevented Thursday’s pattern from becoming an Island Reversal. Probing fresh lows intraday was recovered back into Thursday’s range. Gapping up Monday would still qualify, but there is no other reversal setup.
Mid-day Update… Scraping by.
Morning’s range chips away at yesterday’s highs.
The 1960.00 opening gap up trended down through the first hour to attack 1949.00. That pierced yesterday’s 1949.50 high, which also equates to its cash session close.
A bounce to 1959.00 resolved in a fresh low testing 1948.00. But the noon hour’s entry was still overlapping 1952.00-1953.00 — neither recovering its test as support, nor rejecting it.
Entering the bias environment above or below 1952.00-1953.00 would still likely trend in that direction. Trending up would likely drift higher into the close, probably probing the 1968.75 overnight high. Trending down would likely be steep and deep.
Currently, the noon hour’s bounce has been ranging narrowly around 1952.00-1953.00. And now that the noon hour is 61.8% elapsed, a resolution should become obvious soon.