Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1937.25 | 1934.25 |
| …would target | 1942.50 | 1939.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1926.25 | 1923.50 |
| …would target | 1920.75 | 1917.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED ABOVE BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Delayed gratification?
Rewarding yesterday’s buyers isn’t being prioritized.
The open’s 6-point surge up to 1936.50 was brief and quickly retraced. Retraced and reversed down to and through the 1927.25 bias-up signal on the way to 1922.00.
A bounce recovered 1927.25 in time to invoke the grace period, but it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not no-bias, which would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And not bias-up.
Up still still seems likelier than down. The bigger picture still suggests probing Monday’s 1943.75 high, despite having reacted down this morning from touching its range. Continually recovering to probe above yesterday’s 1929.25 high suggests this morning’s bias environment intends to reward yesterday afternoon’s buyers. And a clean rejection of both bias-up parameters was itself rejected.
Having said that, 1927.25 should hold as support. Probing it by several ticks would suggest something much more bearish is beginning to overwhelm the bullish influences.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery testing 1936.00 was retraced down to 1929.00, which has launched another attack on 1936.00. Gapping up above the 1934.25 bias-up target allows a little much room and time to delay extending higher, and to reward yesterday’s afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. But that reward of probing higher this morning remains intact so long as yesterday’s 1929.25 high holds as support.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Having ignored the open’s window for recovering immediately, Wednesday’s gap down extended deeper to its next support at 1890.00. Multiple tests held through the morning’s bias environment, and its exit surged to fresh post-open highs. That fulfilled a bullish setup likely to end the day much higher — and the cash session touched 1929.25. Buyers gained traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending higher into and out of the close soon touched 1938.50. Reversing down into and out of Europe’s opens almost touched 1920.00 before recovering back to and through yesterday’s highs, now testing 1936.00.
If, then…
Rewarding yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction would probe higher this morning, or at least recover a knee-jerk reaction down from surprising news. The minimum upside objective is to retest overbought RSIs at Monday afternoon’s 1943.75 high, probably up to 1946.00, and potentially to 1952.00-1953.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1936.75 would be likely also to exceed the 1934.25 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1931.25 would be likely to trigger the 1927.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Haven’t seen a Wreversal Wednesday in awhile. Trending convincingly during the morning before an entirely different picture emerges into the close.
There is no “unfinished business” below. Not recovering above 1898.00 through the open had required trending down even deeper to 1890.00 to satisfy the overwhelming selling pressure. Probing under it continually overlapped it without breaking lower.
The recovery gained traction for its effort, by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window. Rewarding the recovery’s sponsorship Thursday morning is likely, so long as the open isn’t rejecting the recovery by gapping down too deeply.
Regardless of Thursday morning’s action, Wednesday’s high touched last Wednesday’s 1927.25 high. That was the “pivotal high” prior to Monday’s 1943.75 actual high. Just touching the pivotal high now requires also touching the actual high.
Recall that the drop from Monday’s close was always considered only a temporary correction. The timing of its origin, the high’s overbought RSIs, the high’s opening gap up… Wednesday’s recovery is in-line with this context. So, higher highs remain likely up to 1846.00 and potentially also to 185.00-1853.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.