Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1930.25 | 1927.25 |
| …would target | 1937.00 | 1934.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1920.75 | 1918.00 |
| …would target | 1915.50 | 1912.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Proper context.
Entering the final hour at session highs.
The recovery has extended to test yesterday morning’s 1919.00 low as resistance up to 1921.00. Now that’s being probed up to 1923.00.
Just closing above 1914.00 suggests that the interim selling was absorbed, in-line with the drop being only a temporary correction. Traction would be gained by trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (which just opened), combined with having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high.
Occasionally, that traction is rewarded before the close. So, potential remains alive for trending up even more substantially today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down slightly Wednesday was recovered to probe positive territory slightly, while still maintaining the downtrend’s ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Clearly rejecting Monday’s close under 1216.60 and barely recovering the 1222.60 buy signal at Tuesday’s close was well-rewarded overnight and through Wednesday’s open by fulfilling the 1242.00 and 1248.00 targets up to 1254.30, Reacting down probed 1240.00 support, threatening momentum to also test the recent 1263.90 high.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging overnight stopped a dime short of fulfilling a retest of the recent open’s gap at 15.70, whose test is likely before a downleg would be credible. Its reaction down probed under the 15.37 open as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery extended higher overnight to gap up Wednesday at 167-17. The extension up to 168-25 was retraced to test Tuesday’s 167-04 highs as support, still targeting a test of the recent opening high’s 169-31 gap.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sliding overnight to test 30.60 support created room for a corrective bounce up to 31.50 while still targeting a retest of the lows. Exceeding it intraday created potential to 32.40, but closing back under 31.15 would reinstate the downside target.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The second session of a two-day setup opened flat to leave no “unfinished business” below, so that closing above Tuesday morning’s 1.88 high would signal a bottom is reversing back up.
Mid-day Update… Potential.
Plenty of room to the upside.
Extending down overnight was already stretching the correction scenario. Extending down this morning jeopardized recovering altogether.
Extending down to 1890.00 helped to restart the recovery potential. Bouncing back to 1898.00 helped to seal a bottom. Exiting the bias environment probing fresh highs made it formal.
Now after ranging around the afternoon’s 1905.00 bias-up signal, the afternoon’s noN-bias environment is breaking higher. The 1914.00 lower-prior high that could have ended the overnight slide is now being tested as resistance.
Exiting the bias environment in rally mode could recover the balance of yesterday’s drop before today’s close. Pullbacks holding 1909.50 would remain likely to extend the recovery. Back under 1905.00 would start to suggest otherwise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s parade of Fed speakers continues Thursday with another two scheduled intraday. GDP is also scheduled, and it’s very reliable for influencing price action — potentially bullishly if it reflects the same recessionary data that have been coming lately.
James Bullard Speaks
WED 6:30 PM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:15 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
12:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET