Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1908.00 | 1905.00 |
| …would target | 1914.00 | 1911.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1901.00 | 1898.00 |
| …would target | 1895.50 | 1892.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too little, too late.
Opening dip reacts up a little, shuts down a lot.
Opening at 1900.00 was sent to fresh lows testing 1895.00. A reaction up tested 1898.00, stopping 1-2 ticks short of a buy signal before reacting back down. Being the 9:45 bar, it neither held nor rejected 1898.00. But being 9:45, no already recovering made further downside likely.
Fresh lows did eventually extend down to 1888.00. Choppy action since then could form a bottom back above 1891.50 and 1895.50. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1884.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action has hovered off of the 1896.00 low back up to 1901.50. It should be obvious through the open if the extreme sentiment is a sentiment extreme, by holding 1898.50 and recovering 1905.00 if not also 1914.50. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is 1890.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Overdue Update (and overdue replies)
My site developer is overseas, and overnight he sent me a group of comments that I wasn’t aware had been posted. He had been resolving a spamming issue — literally hundreds every day like these:
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今、あなたの基本的なアウトラインが行われていることを、あなたはあなたのラインが内側にカットしないでください外にカットすることになるでしょう。
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The developer had to disable posting while resolving the issue. Apparently, the issue was resolved last week, and he was monitoring it for a week before reporting back to me. Sort of a perfect storm. I wasn’t aware of that plan until this morning, or of several new valid comments made by subscribers, (my replies are included below) and had been replying normally to emails.
Meanwhile, I had fallen down on monitoring his progress due to a family situation that took me in and out of town for several weeks. While that situation is not totally resolved, this is the last week for it to interfere with launching the Investment Policy Committee and resuming Livestox.
My thanks to all for your patience. The cannabis space seems to be heating up, so I’m eager to do more coverage beyond the weekly Universe post. Specifics will be sent on Monday. Following are recently requested analyses:
ORGMF — The pattern since November’s high hasn’t been accumulative. But holding .44-.49 could allow accumulation to form. Back above .70 would target .90 and .98.
AERO — Volume is generally too low and therefore too sporadic to offer much confirmation, but the price pattern is forming a bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern that should start accelerating higher if 1.53-1.60 were recovered.
SLVP — The underlying metal is consolidating while miners appear to have extended higher. That might not end well for the miners if the metal doesn’t launch more than a retest of recent highs. A pullback would target 6.41 while still being only a temporary correction.
VAPE — Bullish volume patterns accompanied the recent surge. So long as pullbacks were to hold .0047-.0049 as support, recovering .0077 again would next target .0126.
The First Trade… Night fall.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
After bouncing from an overnight slide, Tuesday’s open was flat with Monday’s 1936.50 futures close. The slide resumed anyway, to 1919.00 in the morning and then much later down to 1916.00. Not too late for 7-1/2 point bounce, or for the futures close to retrace it all back down to 1916.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late drop extended down immediately to range narrowly around 1914.00. Bouncing 4-1/2 points resolved down to attack 1909.00. Bouncing 11 points to a fresh high was also temporary until Europe’s opens. Its reversal has extended sharply lower to 1896.00.
If, then…
Monday’s high left outstanding overbought RSIs requiring a retest at 1944.00. The gap back up to its 1942.00 cash session closing equivalent is an attraction, too. An opportunity gap down irrecoverably Tuesday was rejected. So, the subsequent downleg’s context is of a temporary correction. Testing “lower prior highs” as support is not unusual before recovering. Problem: 1914.00 was the lowest lower prior high with potential to be tested, and likely to launch the high’s retest. But the overnight action has fallen well under it. The extreme sentiment of relentless overnight trending is often a sentiment extreme that reverses direction at the open. The window for that isn’t very wide, and not very forgiving — extending down post-open could double the overnight slide by noon.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1905.00 would also likely recover the 1908.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1901.00 would be likely to extend down to 1890.00.