Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1924.75 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1930.00 | 1927.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1917.00 | 1914.00 |
| …would target | 1911.00 | 1908.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The final hour’s break under the morning’s 1918.50 low had extended quickly down to 1915.75. Bouncing back above the prior lows didn’t hold up — it was retraced down to 1917.00.
And there’s still room down to Friday’s “lower prior highs” around 1914.50 to still be a healthy corrective leg.Gapping back up above 1926.00 would be more bullish.
Otherwise, a durable downleg remains unlikely at this stage. Having said that, extending under Friday’s 1 lows would be difficult to recover any time soon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Back-and-filled-in.
Probing the range’s lower-end.
After recording to unchanged around 1936.50, the morning’s slide back down to and through the 1924.50 overnight low reached 1918.75. An 8-point reaction up has returned back to the morning’s low, and now finally through it to 1915.75.
That last break came right after entering the final hour. So, too late to gain traction. And the bias environment’s exit, although higher, was within the noon hour’s range.
False break?
Possibly. RSIs diverged positively into a retest of 1915.75. Back above 1918.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Extending above 1921.25 would confirm.
Otherwise, extending lower would next target Friday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1914.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday didn’t exploit the pattern’s ongoing vulnerability to plunging, but neither has the series of lower lows and lower highs been disrupted.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close under 1216.60 was isolated by gapping up Tuesday back above it. But only back to 1222.60 whose recovery is still needed to trigger the 1242.00 and 1248.00 targets.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday helped to isolate Monday’s dip as holding its test of 15.15 support so the outstanding gap above at 15.70 could be filled.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sliding sharply to test 165-00 at Tuesday’s open was not credible for this stage of the pattern. I noted during the pre-market Tour that proving it was an anomaly required only attacking unchanged. Unchanged was recovered by a surge well into positive territory, offering further confirmation that a test of 170-00 remains in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An early-morning bounce Tuesday was rejected by a deeper slide through the morning, further confirming that a retest of the decline’s original target and the gap back to its 28.80 low close remain in-play.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern’s only bullish setup immediately available for Tuesday was to gap up and close positive, with an interim probe of fresh lows. In fact, Tuesday’s open did gap up and immediately reverse down to new lows. A recovery wasn’t indicated, but forming the setup over two sessions could still qualify.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s most influential items are two Fed speakers. They follow another speaker overnight, and they’re staggered in the morning and afternoon.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
WED 8:30 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
8:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:15 PM ET