Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1930.25 | 1927.25 |
| …would target | 1935.25 | 1932.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1923.25 | 1920.25 |
| …would target | 1917.75 | 1914.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Retracing the overnight dip.
Post-open congestion breaks lower.
Already recovering 13-1/2 points to touch 1938.00 before the open was unable to extend any higher. Opening at or around this morning’s 1933.00 bias-down signal ranged choppily there through the first half hour.
Then it broke lower. The 1927.25 bias-down target was being tested at 10:15. But not exceeded. It’s still a bias-down environment, but it should be noted that holding a test of the target is often a bottom.
Oversold RSIs at he low require its eventual retest. Nothing requires that retest to hold as support. Regardless, the bullish scenario would likely exit the morning’s bias environment already in rally mode. Its reward would be to probe above yesterday’s highs.
The 1924.50 overnight low can be tested, or even probed, without yet reversing the trend down. Indeed, post-open overlapping of yesterday’s range makes a durable downleg unlikely at this stage.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Recovering from the overnight drop has extended higher to touch 1938.00. That’s equidistant between yesterday’s futures close, and the cash session closing equivalent which is both an attraction and resistance.
Still, just trying to recover from the overnight drop, instead of exploiting what could have launched a durable downleg, suggests that yesterday’s highs will be probed. The question is whether that gets underway this morning, or after a post-open dip.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Warning shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Bullish WedEX influence may have contributed to Sunday night’s strong rally. The influence likely contributed to Monday’s post-open surge up to 1943.00. Perhaps it required the surge’s reaction down to be recovered, which the afternoon did by 3 ticks. But WedEX influence had expired by then, so it didn’t require a new upleg. Monday’s relatively narrow ranging around Feb 1’s prior high persisted through the cash session close at 1942.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Suddenly sliding 6-1/2 points into the futures close at 1935.25 was extended deeply overnight. Last Wednesday and Thursday’s “lower prior highs” were probed down to 1924.50 through Europe’s opens. That has been recovered back up to unchanged at 1936.50.
If, then…
The only immediate trend reversal setup is a gap down back to last week’s lower prior highs. The overnight drop showed it to be possible. Its recovery suggests it’s not probable. While simply piercing the prior high does fulfill the minimum requirement for a top, another higher high would be more appropriate before the next downleg begins.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1935.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1933.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1929.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1949.00 | 1946.00 |
| …would target | 1953.00 | 1952.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1936.00 | 1933.00 |
| …would target | 1930.25 | 1927.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.