Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2460.25 | 2460.25 |
| …would target | 2469.50 | 2469.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2441.75 | 2442.00 |
| …would target | 2432.25 | 2432.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The new year’s second session began with a second gap down, after probing the intraday lows overnight. Tuesday night’s 2452.00 low was lower, but it was probed Thursday morning. There was a second recovery back above “higher prior lows,” which was maintained Wednesday, but Thursday’s resistance held as resistance.
Of course, buying pressure was pretty well expended. The resistance of Thursday’s higher prior lows was tested by a 42-point rally from the 2447.00 morning low up to 2489.00. Which was retraced almost entirely to attack 2448.00 during the final hour.
There the market sat through the close, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report, more so than by Capitol Hill theater. Stopping optimistically short of touching or piercing the morning’s low suggests at least an overnight dip is likely. But a bullish resolution all but requires greeting the open already rallying to and/or through Thursday afternoon’s ~2474.00 high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An overnight dip to 1.1380 support was recovered overnight and extended higher Thursday to test Wednesday’s 1.1475 opening high. All attractions below are neutralized, so trending back down again anyway would be bearish.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close dip from 1284.00 to 1280.50 was recovered overnight to trend up Thursday morning to fresh highs testing 1295.00, keeping alive momentum to the 1319.50 target.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still extending higher beyond Tuesday’s minimum required third higher close tested 15.80 Thursday, avoiding a sell signal on the same day as printing a new high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s confirmed breakout extended higher overnight and then sharply higher intraday Thursday to 148-14, up +1-3/4 point on the day and easily fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third higher close. Friday morning’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, which doesn’t preclude a knee-jerk reaction down, but makes it likely to recover.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still hovering around the 47.00 buy signal Thursday isn’t any more credible for breaking higher prior to a corrective dip first testing the 43.35-44.15 pullback limit. EIA is delayed until Friday this week for the holiday, and it is not being greeted from either a position of weakness or strength.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh low down to 2.88 was still testing prior intraday lows to avoid greeting Friday’s delayed EIA report from a position strength. But closing above 3.15 would help to seal a bottom, or at least to start forming a bottom that launches another upleg.
Mid-day Update… Suddenly rudderless.
Afternoon bias avoids triggering.
This morning’s 2450.50 objective was only overlapped while being probed down to 2447.25 as RSIs improved. 
A reaction up was likely, and its likely 2470.00 target was exceeded substantially up to 2489.00. All of which was retraced to the room for noise around 61.8% down to 2454.50.
Now this afternoon’s 2462.25 bias-down signal has triggered noN-bias, for overlapping it at both 1:20 and 1:30. It’s not required to define the window’s lower-end, and its target below doesn’t require being tested. Which isn’t unusual when it’s difficult to generate sponsorship ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.
Meanwhile, holding this morning’s test of Tuesday night’s 2452.00 low can be predictive, either way. Recovering to close back above Friday-Monday’s 2472.00 and 2482.00 relevant lows would signal that the second consecutive intraday recovery was accumulative. But only holding the low’s test without yet recovering would remain vulnerable to extending the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 4, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s monthly Employment Situation report is often released with no other high-profile reports, if any reports at all. But reaction to the post-open report is still likely to duplicate the pre-open reports directional reaction. Then the Fed Chair appears on a panel with ex Fed Chairs.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:15 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:15 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET