Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2483.75 | 2483.75 |
| …would target | 2490.75 | 2490.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2462.00 | 2462.25 |
| …would target | 2451.00 | 2451.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… But, wait, there’s more.
Pre-open recovery attempt collapses post-open.
The overnight drop had trended flat-to-lower, blipping-down at its low to test 2463.00 before midnight. 
Bouncing to the range’s 2480.50 upper-end extended higher into the open up to 2493.50.
Resistance at the 2489.50 bias-down target held as price reversed down immediately. And relentlessly. Its likely minimum objective at 2469.50 was soon met, and now also the next likely objective at 2450.50.
1-minute RSI’s higher low is on the cusp of diverging positively, while 3-minute RSI makes a higher oversold low. That’s not a buy signal, but it doesn’t require a retest. Fresh lows attacked 2447.00, and are now bouncing.
Back above 2459.50 would start to signal a corrective bounce targeting 2470.00. Regardless, the decline is free to resume at any time, its next lower likely target being 2425.25.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Retesting the downside.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s open spiked up and surged to attack Monday’s intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday’s range down to 2452.25. Greeting Wednesday’s open at 2468.00 and extending back up to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment was quite a different texture from the overnight plunge. But the intraday rally stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally, waiting too long to close above Monday’s ~2510.00 intraday highs, and then only by 1 point while still being overlapped. No “unfinished business” above was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
AAPL’s post-close warning has created another overnight plunge to greet a second consecutive session. Wednesday’s late 18-point bounce back to 2511.00 resistance suddenly collapsed down to 2489.00 on the headline. Globex gapped down further and immediately tested 2471.00-2473.00. Flat-to-lower ranging included a blip-down to 2463.00 that only attacked Tuesday’s pre-open low, still 10 points above Tuesday’s overnight low. Recovering to 2481.00 into Europe’s opens has only reacted back down toward the low.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Ultimately, Wednesday’s session wasn’t predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday’s sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Last night’s gap down remains within Tuesday night’s range, which could still hold as support. Its reward would be fresh highs at 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Meanwhile, the longer that probing under Wednesday afternoon’s 2495.00 lows isn’t recovered, the vulnerability increases to evolving into a deeper decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2487.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2489.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2501.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2512.75 | 2513.00 |
| …would target | 2521.75 | 2522.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.50 | 2501.00 |
| …would target | 2489.00 | 2489.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s open spiked up and surged to attack Monday’s intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday’s range down to 2452.25. But greeting the open at 2468.00 was extended to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment, was quite different from the overnight texture, and stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally.
Ultimately, none of Wednesday’s competing influences won the day:
- The overnight slide didn’t exploit its open under prior lows, which would not have required filling the gap back up to Monday’s close, inhibiting further decline.
- The open delayed recovering back into Friday-Monday’s range to avoid forming a bullish Isolation setup.
- The intraday recovery filled the gap back up to Monday’s ~2505.50 close and tested ~2510.00 intraday highs, neutralizing their attractions above.
- Monday’s ~2510.00 intraday highs weren’t finally recovered before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close, which would have signaled a new rally leg underway (making 2525.25‘s signal only a formality).
Ultimately, Wednesday’s session wasn’t predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday’s sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Fresh highs would still be attracted to 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Probing instead under Wednesday afternoon’s 2495.00 lows could evolve into a deeper decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.