Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still being vulnerable to collapse while no new rally leg is likely, Friday traded flat-to-higher. Almost any immediate weakness would be likely to extend down sharply.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s rally had extended post-close to fulfill its 1240.00 objective. Reacting down from there overnight held the 1222.50 buy signal as support. Back under 1216.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there remains potential up to 1241.00 and 1248.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging prevented filling the gap outstanding above, which suggests that a downleg isn’t ready to begin.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above Tuesday’s ~166-00 high Thursday extended Friday to 167-04 before dipping to 166-04. A second consecutive higher close Friday confirms the gap back up to 169-31 is in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s dip extended down from Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s 31.15 prior high, still targeting a retest of the decline’s 26.40 target and the gap outstanding there, probably down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday and trending lower intraday to new lows under 1.80 prevented a durable rally from forming, and created potential to 1.75 or 1.55.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one regional Fed survey has a track record for influencing price action, and Monday’s isn’t it. The post-open PMI flash does have some record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1921.25 | 1918.00 |
| …would target | 1926.00 | 1923.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1908.00 | 1905.00 |
| …would target | 1903.25 | 1900.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Floored.
Pre-open dip tries extending, fails.
The 1901.75 bias-down target had been attacked to within 2 ticks before the open, which then surged to 1909.00. Another dip extended to fresh lows at 1898.75.
That low was retested after an interim bounce up to the 1907.00 bias-down signal. But the bias-down target held as support. And eventually, so did the bias-down signal, triggering a late no-bias.
Now yesterday’s “higher prior lows” are being tested up to 1912.00.
Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. A timely signal would have required at least the bias-up signal’s test. This morning’s late signal doesn’t require anything, but tests of both bias-up parameters remains likely.
This afternoon’s bullish WedEX continues to suggest that sellers will continually fail their attempts to retake control. That said, exiting the bias environment back under 1907.00 would undermine the afternoon upside.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight slide had bounced from 1906.50 to 1913.25, but that is extending down pre-open to 1902.25. Which is within 3 ticks of support at the 1901.75 bias-down target. Rallying out of the open could recover both bias-down parameters to put into play tests of both bias-up parameter. But not recovering quickly could be especially bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recordings (multiple again today, a situation that should be rectified before this afternoon).
pre-market Tour #1
pre-market Tour #2
pre-market Tour #3
pre-market Tour #4