Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Still hovering.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Conditions at Wednesday’s close had suggested Thursday’s session was likely to back-and-fill, which it did. Thursday’s 1927.25 high had been probed overnight up to 1933.25, but the open was back at or under 1927.25. And the balance of the session repeatedly dipped to attack 1911.00-1912.00 three times. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Eventually firming up to 1922.75 was reversed back down to and through Thursday’s lows to 1906.50. A bounce is now testing 1911.00-1912.00.
If, then…
The actively bullish WedEX signal had been one reason for Thursday’s session to back-and-fill. Its bullish influence Friday afternoon allowed for weak-handed sellers. Thursday’s sellers didn’t gain traction, so that template appears to be developing. Now maintaining the template would disallow gapping down, or else rallying immediately out of a gap down. Gapping down would allow yesterday’s decline to extend despite sellers not having gained traction, which would undermine the afternoon’s impending bullish WedEX influence. So, gapping down without recovering is the only setup that could begin to invalidate the bullish WedEX.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s last downleg neutralized the attraction below. That was simultaneously oversold RSIs which printed during the afternoon’s bias environment. Their retest took RSIs back to the brink of being oversold, too. But a retest of the more recently RSIs isn’t required since that developed into the close.
So, there is no hold-short or hold-long, and neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts. An actively bullish WedEX stands ready to provide an upward bias Friday afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. (This version is .avi — I’ll have it converted to MP4 this evening for those who are unable to view it.)
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1923.50 | 1920.00 |
| …would target | 1930.00 | 1926.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1910.50 | 1907.00 |
| …would target | 1905.25 | 1901.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday was retraced back into Wednesday’s range, but no higher as the vulnerability remains greater to extend down if not also to capitulate.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was recovered for a firm open Thursday that extended higher intraday through the 1222.50 signal to test 1226.50 resistance, whose recovery would target 1240.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s outside day was relative subdued, but it was positive, and any early strength would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite not gapping up to isolate Wednesday’s probe under 164-30, Thursday did trend up to recover Tuesday’s 165-21 close and 165-30 resistance, suggesting the 169-31 week-old gap above will next be retested.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting Tuesday’s pre-open high at 31.15 up to almost 32.00 Thursday was reversed back to unchanged, still likelier to retest the decline’s 26.50 target and fill the low close’s gap, while also testing 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing to test “higher prior lows” at 1.95 allowed filling the gap below at 1.91, but Thursday’s open gapped down to fresh lows and trended lower. There is high potential for another consecutive lower close..
Mid-day Update… Backing and filling.
Still probing fresh session lows.
The morning’s attack on 1912.00 had originated during a no-bias environment. That’s “no-bias trending” which requires bouncing to at least test its 1916.50 bias-down signal. In fact, the bounce tested the 10:15 print at 1922.00.
Now a break lower has probed a fresh low at 1911.50. Oversold RSIs there suggest its reaction will fail — at least to retest 1911.50, and perhaps extending the decline to 1909.00 or even to 1898.00.
Back above 1916.50 would suggest a bigger bounce underway anyway. But otherwise today remains most vulnerable to backing-and-filling.