Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 19, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open CPI is high-profile, with a track record for influencing price action. The afternoon’s rig count can affect price action, too.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1923.75 | 1920.00 |
| …would target | 1928.75 | 1925.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1916.25 | 1912.50 |
| …would target | 1908.75 | 1905.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not up.
Overnight probes retraced entirely pre-open.
Extending higher without delay had required gapping up and maintaining it through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, if not also extending higher. Overnight probes above yesterday’s 1927.25 high had teased at that potential.
But the open had dipped back to 1926.00. A blip-up stopped 1 tick short of even touching yesterday’s 1927.25 high. Then price began sliding back to 1920.00 — and lower, touching 1918.00.
Neither bias signal was touched post-open, so this is a no-bias environment without any requirement to test anything specific. Testing either bias signal would be likely to hold.
The bias-up signal was touched minute before the open. Touching it post-open would have put into play an offsetting test of the 1916.50 bias-down signal. That’s otherwise not necessary, but possible since we’re not looking for a recovery today.
Meanwhile, having held yet another reaction down to 1920.00, a bounce has potential to 1925.00 or to retest 1927.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last probe of fresh highs up to 1933.50 has reacted down only to test yesterday’s 1927.25 high as support. That is being probed down to 1926.00, but not down to 1920.00 as with each prior probe higher. At least, not yet. Regardless, trending up through the open would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recordings. That’s right, recordingS. Some sort of glitch in the software repeatedly stopped it, requiring a new cut.
Thursday Tour #1
Thursday Tour #2
Thursday Tour #3
Thursday Tour #4
The First Trade… Anchored uplegs
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday immediately fulfilled the rally’s next higher objective at 1907.00. It was soon exceeded on the way to fulfilling its potential to 1920.00. Higher and higher highs were probed, up to 1924.50 and 1927.25, each time reacting back down to test 1920.00 briefly as support. Buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort (although the bias environment exit was above the its prior timing window, the final hour’s entry was not).
Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly returning to Wednesday’s 1927.25 high eventually blipped-up to 1931.50. Like yesterday’s probes, another reaction down tested 1920.00, this time more deeply down to 1916.75 (within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-down signal). But also like yesterday’s reactions, that recovered to another higher high at 1933.50. And now its reaction down is attacking 1928.00.
If, then…
Not gaining traction yesterday requires the open to gap up if the rally intends to extend higher without delay. That’s half the battle. The setup also requires extending higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Trending up is difficult if 1920.00 is still attractive. And since yesterday’s setup was similar, it’s unlikely to repeat today. Not gapping up at all would simply be vulnerable to trending back down through the morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1929.00 would be likely also to trigger the 1927.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1921.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.