Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1931.25 | 1927.75 |
| …would target | 1938.25 | 1934.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1920.00 | 1916.50 |
| …would target | 1913.00 | 1909.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
No traction was gained during Wednesday afternoon timing windows. The bias environment exit was probing above the noon hour’s highs, but the final hour’s entry did not better. Much like Tuesday afternoon’s setup.
Buyers were rewarded by fulfilling the rally’s potential up to 1920.00. Still testing it or overlapping it at Wednesday’s close has avoided putting into play any higher targets. Extending higher Thursday without delay would require gapping up. Much like Tuesday afternoon’s setup.
Similar setups that appear consecutively tend to resolve differently from each other. This would seem to doom gapping up, if not preclude gapping up, at all. Also, since WedEX triggered actively bullish to suggest that Friday afternoon would rally, buyers can rest on their laurels with that downside protection.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still ranging narrowly after the recent support break is running out of time to launch a credible recovery, let alone to avoid a capitulating plunge.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extended narrow ranging through Wednesday should launch at least a blip-up to retest the opening gap outstanding above 1240.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly has extended for long enough that breaking abruptly either way would likely be short-lived and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety, so the long bond fell further Wednesday. Breaking under the 165-12 area is problematic to a near-term recovery — unless gapping up Thursday can isolate Wednesday’s dip.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming back up to attack Tuesday’s 31.50 pre-open high is still considered only a correction before retesting 26.40 down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Now that “higher prior lows” at 1.95 have been tested as resistance, a dip can fill the gap back to Tuesdays’ 1.91 open and neutralize the attraction below.
Mid-day Update… Discounting.
Is bullish FOMC news already reflected?
Potential to 1920.00 was fulfilled before a sell signal could trigger, even if only for a corrective dip. Consolidating back down to 1917.00 resolved up to 1924.50.
Now the afternoon’s 1923.25 bias-up signal has been overlapped to signal noN-bias. No higher target is in-play, and no required afternoon range — although noN-bias does tend to hold the bias signal anyway.
That may be the case now, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Dipping ahead of the news is testing 1920.00 as support. Apart from retesting the highs as a knee-jerk reaction to the news, no higher objective is in-play. And a lot of optimism is reflected in this morning’s rallly.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed is the only regional survey with a track record for influencing price action. And any reaction to it should be duplicated by the morning’s subsequent reports, especially the post-open LEI.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET