Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Firming into and out of the close didn’t finish until touching 1877.00. This neutralizes the upside attraction back to Friday afternoon’s bias-down signal. Selling may resume without hesitation and extend lower without inhibition. Unless Friday’s pessimism is corrected or rejected since its sellers gained no traction for their efforts. We’ll discuss the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review — its link will be sent overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Hanging by a thread.
No-bias trending is extending.
This afternoon’s 1877.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger at 1:20. But it broke lower anyway to lower and lower lows, eventually testing 1866.00.
Sellers gained no traction for the effort. The bias environment exit was under the noon hour’s low. But the final hour’s entry was still within the bias environment’s range. Barely, and on its way to probing a fresh low, but not by enough when it mattered.
Now a steep 8-point bounce through the 3:10-3:20 window is within 3 points of 1877.00. Regardless of the eventual resolution, the afternoon’s bias-down signal must be tested eventually since its break was premature.
It’s too late for a bounce to be reliable, when Friday afternoon’s bias environment exit is probing fresh session lows. Testing 1877.00, or not, the pattern remains vulnerable to resolving down.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having entrenched the uptrend Thursday with a confirmed breakout, Friday dipped back into Wednesday’s range, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back to its close. Regardless, at least an eventual higher close is now required.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Spiking up on payrolls to 1164.00 reacted down sharply into negative territory, its 1145.50 low stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close before recovering back into the range.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up on Friday’s payrolls was retraced as quickly to resume return to the 14.86 pullback limit that had held already Thursday, consolidating under it through the afternoon.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up to 163-22 on Friday’s payrolls remained encompassed by the prior surge, so it was only noise. But dropping to attack the 161-27 sell signal did react back up to attack the morning’s high.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Higher highs overnight had evaporated before Friday’s open, replaced intraday by the relatively narrow directionless ranging as was expected.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming after Thursday’s reaction to fresh lows, a bottoming pattern has almost fully formed, but 2.02 must hold tests as support.
Mid-day Update… Putting the “A” in weakend.
Greeting the weekend from a position of weakness.
This morning’s slide through the 1886.00 objective came within 1 tick of its 1873.75 objective. Bouncing into the noon hour retested 1886.00 as resistance before reacting down again.
The 1877.00 bias-down signal was tested but not triggered. That didn’t prevent probing fresh lows, but the “no-bias trending” had to retrace 1877.00.
1877.00 was retraced, but that was at the top of the hour. Rather than wait around for the bias environment to begin lapsing, fresh lows are now testing 1868.50.
The next lower objective is a retest of Wednesday’s 1865.00 low down to 1862.75. This leg could accomplish that, so long as bounce limits hold. A more reliable downleg would first retest the 1877.00 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or influential reports are scheduled for Monday, as the reaction to Friday’s Employment report is more fully absorbed.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET