Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1895.00 | 1888.50 |
| …would target | 1902.50 | 1896.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1883.50 | 1877.00 |
| …would target | 1877.00 | 1870.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers get another chance.
So did buyers. Sellers are exploiting theirs.
Yesterday’s session was replete with pessimism. Multiple rally attempts to trend down were recovered back into the range. So, that pessimism is ineffectual, not having gained traction for the effort.
But the pessimism was never rejected. Dips, once absorbed, never reversed back above a prior high. That was the caveat to today’s bullish potential.
It was also the caveat to this morning’s pre-open surge. At least the payroll reaction’s spike down was in-line with yesterday’s dips that had recovered. But already recovering it before the open also tracked the pattern of failed bounces.
So, testing 1908.00-1910.00 was reversed through the open back down to the 1895.75 pre-open low. And then lower to 1891.00. Bias-down triggered, and although its target was met already, that’s now extending to 1885.00.
Unless 1890.00 is recovered coming out of the bias environment, the drop’s next objective is 1873.75, and potentially a retest of Wednesday’s low down to 1962.75.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The Employment Situation report’s reaction spiked down to fresh lows testing 1896.00. Ranging off of there has repeatedly overlapped yesterday afternoon’s 1898.00 low.
Whether or not a fresh low tests the 1894.25 bias-down target, exiting the opening 15 minutes in rally mode would help prove that sellers aren’t strong-handed. Price shouldn’t wait too long before gravitating higher.
Opening optimistically can’t afford to wait before extending higher — like, already bouncing up to 1908.00-1910.00 — because even weak-handed sellers have been absorbing bounces.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Nervous. But, nervous enough?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rewarding the prior afternoon’s upside traction required absorbing Thursday’s pre-open dip to 1890.00, and a post-open dip to 1894.00. Recovering back above the prior session’s highs still peaked 3 ticks short of touching the 1922.50 overnight highs. The balance of the session narrowed its range into the 1908.00-1910.00 close, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the payrolls report. Even probing deeply into negative territory during Thursday afternoon’s bias-up environment was recovered back to its bias-up signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
As is often the case ahead of an Employment report, the narrow range persisted, albeit in slightly negative territory. The range did expand at Europe’s opens, back up to the prior afternoon’s 1914.00 bias-up target. Price has settled back into 1908.00-1910.00.
If, then…
That was a lot of pessimism Thursday. A lot of ineffectual pessimism. Not so much the morning’s attack on overnight highs, which aren’t as influential intraday. But the pre-open and post-open dips that were recovered in order to launch that attack. And the afternoon’s bias-up downtrend whose timing prevented sellers from gaining traction for the effort. It’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, which suggests a positive resolution to this morning’s pre-open report. All that having been said, the pessimism that was absorbed yesterday wasn’t recovered back above any relevant levels. So, I’ll be a little reluctant to buy an initially negative knee-jerk reaction that breaks under yesterday’s lows, and a little suspicious of opening strength that isn’t recovering above prior highs.
First Trade…
No preliminary levels are considered prior to an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1919.00 | 1913.00 |
| …would target | 1926.25 | 1920.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1907.50 | 1901.50 |
| …would target | 1900.25 | 1894.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.