Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday retraced 61.8% of Friday’s drop up to 1.0922, essentially holding 1.0900 resistance to keep alive the potential for resuming the slide to 1.0785.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging at Monday’s open to fresh highs above 1121.50-1122.00 came just in time to prevent Thursday and Friday’s test of 1114.00 support from breaking lower. The 1131.50 target remains in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Opening firm Monday probed above 14.35-14.40 whose recovery would resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s pullback now allows a break under 160-00 to signal a deeper dip underway targeting 157-10. Extending higher would meanwhile continue to target 162-26.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 34.80 corrective bounce target that was touched Thursday wasn’t retested before Sunday night’s slide that extended down sharply Monday to 31.25. Gapping up Tuesday above 32.50 would reject the slide, but otherwise the corrective bounce has ended.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday had over-optimistically avoided dipping to test the range’s 2.18 “lower prior highs.” Gapping back down Monday avoided a second consecutive higher confirming close, but left outstanding the gap back to Friday’s 2.30 close to encourage a recovery.
Mid-day Update… Terrible twos.
Price keeps returning to relevant support.
This morning’ s 1922.00 bias-down signal held the open’s bounce, then it held the recovery from fresh lows. Probing above it came after triggering bias-down.
Probes above 1922.00 were retraced as the bias-down signal defined the bias-down environment’s upper-end. Those probes got to 1924.00, 1926.00 and almost 1929.00. Each probe was retraced to 1922.00 — and lower during the noon hour, attacking 1918.00.
All while still ranging around 1922.00.
Attacking this morning’s lows would likely extend back into last week’s range under 1909.00. The afternoon’s no-bias environment could otherwise bounce to test its 1931.50 bias-up signal without trending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar is slow until the afternoon’s Fed speaker. Things start getting busy as Friday’s Employment Situation report nears.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
1:00 PM ET
.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1938.25 | 1931.50 |
| …would target | 1943.75 | 1937.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1924.25 | 1917.50 |
| …would target | 1918.25 | 1911.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The old college tries.
Post-open probes under support recover.
The overnight drop had attacked 1913.00 to within 3 ticks. Bouncing into and out of the open tested the 1922.00 bias-down signal as resistance.
So, the gap down had avoided 1913.00. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had held two tests of Friday afternoon’s bias environment low. A durable reversal down wasn’t credible.
But fresh lows remained possible if buyers weren’t regaining control. And buyers weren’t regaining control.
Several econ reports helped that bounce resolve down to fresh lows testing 1913.00. Another bounce tested the post-open high and the 1922.00 bias-down signal, which held again.
Triggering late bias-down, whose target has been met, only requires the morning’s upper-end to be defined by the 1922.00 bias-down signal. Meanwhile, attacking or probing the lows is possible down to 1914.00 or 1911.50, but not required.