Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight pullback extended lower to attack 1913.00. Gapping under it would invalidate Friday’s close above 1924.00. The close already was suspicious, but it’s now official that higher targets are not in-play. Now the recovery is on defense.
None of which confirms the trend is reversing back down.
Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Trending relentlessly overnight is often reversed at the open. And testing “lower prior highs” as support within last week’s trading range can launch another rally effort.
Extending down anyway through the open may be irrecoverable. But we’ll monitor for recovery potential if new sellers aren’t being attracted post-open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Giving back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 7-point gap up to 1894.50 extended back to and through Wednesday’s 1910.00 high to fulfill the corrective rally’s 1913.00 attraction by noon. That was extended through the afternoon’s bias environment exit to fulfill potential up to 1924.00. The position-squaring window ended with a surge up to 1933.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s firm open only attacked Friday’s high before drifting back down to 1922.50. Ranging back up to 1830.00 resolved down through Europe’s opens down to 1917.50. Another bounce’s failure is now probing fresh lows down to 1916.50.
If, then…
Despite producing a breakout close above resistance, the rally has gotten suspicious. Friday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction through relevant timing windows. The first close above a multi-session range was a breakout, but Friday breakouts often aren’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Mondays. And Friday’s close above 1924.00 was produced by a leg that originated too late to be reliable. Not holding 1913.00 would undermine the interim extension to 1924.00, if not also reverse the recovery.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1924.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1922.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1919.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 1913.00 would be unlikely to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Globex chaRTroom link
CLICK HERE to join us in the chaRTroom. The overnight Globex session opens in 5 minutes. See you there!
The Universe, week of February 1, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
No new patterns to report this week as suddenly being attractive. Indeed, nothing significant to report for the sector. Except for one or three things. The one thing is cannabis-related biotechs, and the three things are GWPH, INSY and CARA — all of which extended to fresh relative lows. Mark the prior week’s consolidation ranges, and note that their recoveries would be bullish.
Meanwhile, finishing touches are being made to the IPC model portfolio and site structure, which I hope to unveil later this week.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for February 1, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 5 | 6.02% |
| trends* | # flat: | 22 | 26.51% |
| # down: | 56 | 67.47% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | down |
| CARA | 7.650 | 11.150 | down |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.002 | 0.004 | down |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.117 | 0.205 | down |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 44.650 | 58.800 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 12.000 | 22.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRPD | 0.133 | 0.209 | down |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.040 | flat |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.029 | 0.068 | flat |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.510 | 0.920 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.004 | 0.014 | down |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | down |
| PMCB | 0.064 | 0.091 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.005 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.014 | 0.033 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.325 | 0.450 | up |
| SRNA | 0.070 | 0.100 | flat |
| STEV | 0.005 | 0.024 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.020 | 0.160 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/30/16) …
We had tested a new chaRTroom platform several times during the week, and then used it exclusively for this weekend’s session. The room limitation was not met but some subscribers were denied access anyway. We’ll continue using Anymeeting until that and any other issues are resolved.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GOOGL, GDX, AAPL, AMZN, DDD, SIG, CAT, CFX, PANW, DD, GDXJ, RGLD, DVA, HCA, NKE, SLB
8:27 Rod test rod 1
8:27 Rod_1 test rod 2
9:02 Steve Looks good on desktop, unfortunately when I tried to log in on an ipad I got a message that screen sharing is not supported on mobile platforms.
9:16 Bill G was unable to use on my xp machine. Seems fine on this one.
9:19 Rod David I’m running it on XP right now on another machine
9:19 Rod David I’ll find out about iPad, the product claims to be compatible
9:22 Bill G What browzer are you using on your xp?
9:23 Rod David Firefox
9:25 Bill G ok, for today, I’ll use this machine and put firefox on the xp. I have IE
9:26 Rod David Let me know the result
9:27 Bill G good
9:33 M_K test
9:33 David B Good Morning
9:34 M_K Did we figure out about Mute?
9:34 David B does it work on ipad?
9:34 M_K no
9:34 Josey no
9:35 M_K Rod, I still can’t mute you
9:36 M_K thats kind of a big deal for me
9:37 M_K OH sweet
9:37 M_K windows 10
9:37 M_K i just figured it out
9:37 M_K how to mute just the program
9:37 M_K only if you have windows 10
9:37 M_K lower right corner
9:37 M_K there is an audio icon
9:37 M_K click on it
9:38 M_K you wind up with a selector for different programs and the audio
9:38 M_K is listed as “chartroom meeting”
9:38 M_K and i muted it
9:38 M_K and my system sounds worked
9:39 M_K i think the statistic was
9:39 M_K of all the fridays in december/jan
9:39 M_K 70% of them have been 2% moves or more
9:55 David B nasdaq has been underperfoming does this mean if we are going to 1969 will need to ourperform?
9:55 David B outperform
9:59 David B GOOGL,GDX
9:59 M_K AAPL
9:59 M_K AMZN
9:59 M_K CAT
9:59 Josey DDD, SIG
10:00 M_K CFX
10:00 David B GOOGL earnings on mon. going in on strength?
10:00 Josey PANW, DD
10:01 M_K FB
10:01 M_K Josey: i was looking at PANW as well
10:01 Josey Short
10:03 Bill G_1 fyi, my xp is good with firefox.
10:03 M_K RE: GDX has a HUGE allocation to RGLD
10:03 M_K which is down 30+%
10:03 M_K on issues with a large royalthy contract they have
10:04 M_K so GDX isn’t a real good value
10:04 M_K look at GDXJ
10:11 Bill G Friday had stocks, bonds, dollar and gold all up. It would seem at least one of those is wrong?
10:12 Josey Both
10:12 Josey both
10:13 M_K DVA
10:13 M_K HCA
10:22 M_K yes
10:22 M_K CFX
10:24 M_K Rod you are on the Weekly
10:24 M_K not the daily
10:24 M_K !!!
10:24 M_K rod
10:24 M_K you are using the weekly chart
10:24 M_K buy
10:34 M_K yes
10:34 M_K they do Dialysis
10:34 M_K dialisys
10:34 M_K wow
10:34 M_K i’m brain
10:34 M_K my brain
10:34 M_K i can’t spell
10:34 M_K or type
10:39 Josey Thank you!
10:39 M_K OH
10:39 M_K NKE
10:39 M_K sorry
10:39 M_K NKE
10:39 M_K and SLB
10:39 M_K and i’m done
10:43 M_K grrr
10:43 M_K ok
10:43 M_K i’ll bail on it
10:43 M_K have a good weekend
10:44 Bill G Have a good one
10:44 David B thanks