Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
One-hour countdown begins… NOW! Wait… now!… How about now? Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
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Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The 1913.00 objective was met early, but not rejected, so the rally extended. The next higher objective at 1924.00 was met late, but not rejected, so the rally extended. Closing above 1924.00 would put into play much higher objectives.
The breakout leg originated late and wasn’t complex, so it requires confirmation as much as any other trigger. The alternative doesn’t necessarily resume the decline, at least not immediately. I’ll describe the likely possible paths during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1939.00 | 1932.25 |
| …would target | 1944.50 | 1937.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1928.75 | 1922.00 |
| …would target | 1923.25 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOW, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Got there, too.
Extended target met. And held.
The corrective rally’s 1913.00 objective was never “unfinished business” that required being tested. But its test was likely anyway, so long as no interim reaction down gained traction.
No interim reaction down gained traction.
The same description can be applied to 1924.00. While not required to be met, its test would be likely so long as testing 1913.00 wasn’t reversed.
Testing 1913.00 wasn’t reversed.
Now 1924.00 has been touched. It was tested AFTER the bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction down retraced that entry BEFORE the final hour was entered. That’s isolation.
And it’s potentially reversing momentum down. Unless fresh highs are probed through the 3:10-3:20 timing window, the final hour is now vulnerable to reversing down to 1909.00 and 1906.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Exploiting Wednesday’s gap fill and extending higher Thursday through 1.0950 was partially rejected by gapping down Friday back under 1.0950 and extending down sharply.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ahead of Friday’s open was able to hold the 1114.00 pullback limit again, but shouldn’t further delay extending the rally if its momentum remains intact.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s dip didn’t extend down Friday, but still must recover above 14.35-14.40 to resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting the prior high now allows the rally to peak, whether immediately or after extending to test 162-26. Interestingly, the strength accompanies stock market strength, without a “flight-to-safety” catalyst.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s early strength attacked the 34.80 bounce target that had been met Thursday. Its reaction down into negative territory stopped short of testing the 32.50 pullback limit, keeping alive potential for extending to 37.20.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Recovering Thursday from its dip had kept alive the basing pattern, yet again, by closing back above 2.14. Friday’s gap up to 2.30 helps to signal the bottom is done forming, but a second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a new upleg is underway. Meanwhile, a test of “lower prior highs” at 2.19 would temper the excessive optimism.