Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1901.00 | 1893.75 |
| …would target | 1907.00 | 1900.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1890.75 | 1883.75 |
| …would target | 1885.75 | 1878.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Waiting out a storm.
Hovering just above Friday’s lows.
Gapping down under Friday’s 1884.00 low was the minimum requirement to signal that the corrective rally had ended. Gapping down a little could have extended down post-open to suggest the same. But the open’s gap down has not extended.
Rallying immediately is not necessarily the alternative. Bias-down was triggered under 1982.00 at 10:15, putting into play a test of its 1885.75 bias-down target. Meeting it would still keep the door open to resuming the corrective rally.
Back above 1894.00 would suggest the bias-down is invalid, targeting at least a retest of Friday’s 1900.00-1902.00 highs. Meanwhile, fresh lows are likely, albeit only temporarily, before the corrective rally can resume.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Recovering up to 1900.00 didn’t turn positive, let alone extend into positive territory. Its reaction has dropped back to the 1887.50 low, probing 1 point under it. And within 1 point of the bias-down target.
In either case, it’s barely threatening to gap under Friday’s 1884.00 low. That would take any recovery potential off the table. Not triggering the 1992.00 bias-down signal would keep the rally in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Like waiting for a shoe to drop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up 31 points Thursday to 1892.00 was essentially Friday’s midpoint, as the balance of the session fluctuated relatively narrowly up to 1900.00 and back down to 1884.00, then back up again.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s sideways ranging has resumed, albeit narrower. since Sunday night’s blip-up momentarily tested 1904.00. That was reversed into a narrowing range back around 1900.00, which broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens fell to 1887.50. Reacting back up is testing to 1900.00 as resistance has kept the range narrow, but not so much calm as paralyzed by anxiousness.
If, then…
Today’s only econ report has no track record for influencing price action, but ECB head Draghi speaking today should have an impact. Not already gapping down under Friday’s lows at Monday’s open makes the rally likely to extend another 15-20 points higher.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1905.00 would be likely to trigger the 1902.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1896.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1886.00 would be likely to trigger the 1892.00 bias-down signal.