Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of January 25, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Several names jump out from the latest screening of patterns in development.
AERO is almost literally a “double-or-nothing” proposition, as its current basing pattern has reached an inflection point. AMMJ is a “Cup and Handle” pattern that failed its optimal handle limit, but is since trying to resume its rally. CANV spiked up Friday to maintain its accumulative pattern, which took on a steep pullback last week.
TRTC has formed an Ascending Triangle off of its recent surging upleg, which is vulnerable to one more surge, or else a resumption of its ongoing decline. And GWPH is consolidating at a key support area that we discussed during last week’s Livestox, and which didn’t deteriorate further, ignoring the broader market’s interim weakness.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for January 25, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 5 | 5.81% |
| trends* | # flat: | 22 | 25.58% |
| # down: | 59 | 68.60% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 1.650 | 2.200 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.550 | 0.770 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | down |
| CARA | 10.500 | 13.900 | down |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.002 | 0.004 | down |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.170 | 0.260 | down |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 51.050 | 65.350 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 23.000 | 30.000 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRPD | 0.133 | 0.209 | down |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.040 | flat |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.029 | 0.068 | flat |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.036 | 0.048 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.510 | 0.920 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.004 | 0.014 | down |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | down |
| PMCB | 0.064 | 0.091 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.005 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.037 | 0.073 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.325 | 0.450 | up |
| SRNA | 0.070 | 0.100 | flat |
| STEV | 0.005 | 0.024 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.020 | 0.160 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/23/16) …
The history of topping was covered in the beginning of this week’s session. It included a contrast between August’s warning shot against the rally, and January’s direct hit. The discussion concluded with a description of the three possible paths going forward, which one was likeliest, including the why and the when. We could have gone on much longer, but the pool area had been reserved for the afternoon’s belly-flop competition.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SIG, AAPL, AMZN, PANW, FB, GDX, USZ, DDD, LNKD, HD, IBB
01/23/2016 09:33:44 charlie: hi0
01/23/2016 09:34:18 sunil: GM folks..from snowed in DC
01/23/2016 09:34:45 sunil: yea
01/23/2016 09:36:44 sunil: What is the price it should meet to invalidate this downtrend? And when to get long potentially
01/23/2016 09:57:12 sunil: what should be a capitulative session? ideal I mean
01/23/2016 09:59:32 sunil: jawboning…
01/23/2016 10:07:49 sunil: ok thnx
01/23/2016 10:08:04 charlie: good job
01/23/2016 10:09:54 sunil: If the downtrend has to resume again, it was said it needs to get going again soon, how long is too long to do that.
01/23/2016 10:11:58 sunil: you earlier
01/23/2016 10:12:56 David B: market miight be discounting more dovish based on what draghi said and will see a much bigger bounce?
01/23/2016 10:13:08 sunil: And what could be probable price level of reversal down start again?
01/23/2016 10:13:38 sunil: after this up move
01/23/2016 10:15:30 sunil: where is it triggered
01/23/2016 10:15:33 David B: at ceratin times when there was a major turning point they have always done something to change the trend. is this time different based on what we are seeing?
01/23/2016 10:16:23 sunil: ok
01/23/2016 10:17:35 Josey: I would think that would be bad to
01/23/2016 10:18:00 sunil: Dragi been doing this ….all the time! it will not end well..
01/23/2016 10:18:37 David B: is oil decoupling from the market or will the market trade with oil?
01/23/2016 10:19:31 David B: meaning oil up/down is the way the market will trade?
01/23/2016 10:22:08 Mark Glezer: seems lile correlation is still in place
01/23/2016 10:22:19 sunil: 34.80 on crude , what are the price levels to draw to get to that
01/23/2016 10:22:30 sunil: on fibs
01/23/2016 10:23:10 sunil: yes
01/23/2016 10:24:37 sunil: fib on fib..
01/23/2016 10:26:01 sunil: ok cool bit complex but fine
01/23/2016 10:26:41 sunil: sure thnx
01/23/2016 10:26:47 Josey: SIG
01/23/2016 10:27:50 charlie: AAPL
01/23/2016 10:28:07 sunil: usd/jpy…seems lot of room if it turns downward
01/23/2016 10:28:14 David B: AMZN,PANW
01/23/2016 10:28:56 sunil: fb
01/23/2016 10:30:31 sunil: gdx, tlt – long
01/23/2016 10:32:25 sunil: Hong Kong dollar
01/23/2016 10:32:43 David B: maybe earnings on tues for aapl?
01/23/2016 10:32:52 David B: why its doing this?
01/23/2016 10:37:45 David B: earnings thu on amzn
01/23/2016 10:38:50 sunil: lnkd, hd
01/23/2016 10:39:01 David B: what price could see upside into earnings?
01/23/2016 10:39:07 David B: amzn
01/23/2016 10:39:07 Josey: DDD need to retest it’s last low?
01/23/2016 10:41:39 David B: because of the fed this week is it possible we really won’t see any significant to downside or upside until wed?. Do you think they will play a role in any significant way?
01/23/2016 10:45:16 sunil: yes TLT
01/23/2016 10:52:16 sunil: last one IBB
01/23/2016 11:00:20 sunil: good weekend all
01/23/2016 11:00:37 sunil: Time for snow ball fights..and big dig begins….
01/23/2016 11:00:52 sunil: yes
01/23/2016 11:02:01 Josey: Another great session, TY
01/23/2016 11:02:12 sunil: TY…
01/23/2016 11:02:14 David B: can yu answer my question
01/23/2016 11:02:17 David B: you
01/23/2016 11:02:44 sunil: had to clean some out earlier …as its more than 2feet
01/23/2016 11:04:00 Josey: SUNIL – 75 today in AZ :) have fun!
01/23/2016 11:04:26 sunil: yea…it’s real heavy now
01/23/2016 11:04:41 David B: thanks
01/23/2016 11:04:42 sunil: here
01/23/2016 11:04:44 Mark Glezer: thx
01/23/2016 11:05:14 charlie: tks
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1909.00 | 1902.00 |
| …would target | 1913.75 | 1907.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1898.75 | 1892.00 |
| …would target | 1892.75 | 1885.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Exiting Friday’s bias environment probing fresh session highs usually marginalizes sellers for the day. An exception was possible if exiting the bias environment back under the afternoon’s 1895.50 bias-up target. It was being probed and overlapped during 2:30-3:00, but ultimately held. The dip from 1902.00 to 1892.00 was recovered to end the day back at the morning’s 1900.00 high.
[Join us at 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. Log-in link will be sent overnight.]
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.