Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Onward and sideward.
Fresh highs hold, but not necessarily reverse.
The afternoon’s 1895.50 bias-up target was met. Potential to 1898.00 was fulfilled. And the morning’s 1900.25 high was probed, up to 1902.25.
1902.25 was the next higher resistance that we discussed during the pre-market Tour. Exceeding it through a relevant window would have put into play much higher levels. Exiting the bias environment back under 1898.00 has suggested the upside is done.
1985.50 was being tested as support during the bias environment exit, too. It has essentially held, with price fluctuating widely around it. It’s too late to break lower by strong hands. But breaking lower could still trend down into the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s premature bounce from attacking 1.0750-1.0785 was largely retraced by Friday’s immediate break lower. The target remains intact so long as 1.0900 isn’t recovered.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back above 1100.00 was too muted to signal that the pullback limit’s test on Thursday had necessarily held. But its break Thursday was not confirmed and potential to new highs remains intact.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Friday morning to probe above 14.35 also filled the highest outstanding gap. Its resistance held and pushed price back down to test 14.10 support. Extending higher early Monday would be credible for finally launching a rally from the basing pattern.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping deeper fulfilled the minimum pullback objective of filling the gap outstanding from 159-06. The next lower attraction is 157-10, so long as 159-20 is not recovered first.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Immediately opening Friday to test the bounce’s 31.00 objective was extended higher to also test 32.00, with potential for extending ultimately to test 34.30, so long as 31.00 now holds as support.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging around 2.14 is forming a base that can launch a recovery of the high’s failed Ascending Triangle, which is always likely.
Mid-day Update… Gobbled up.
Mid-morning slide recovers.
This morning’s reaction down from 1898.00 came after the bias timing window’s 10:15 signal. The timing suggested that its sponsorship was weak-handed, and therefore unlikely to reverse the trend down.
The reaction was a little deeper than I had anticipated, attacking 1883.00. But its potential back up to 1998.00 is now fulfilled. Bias-up was triggered along the way. Its target is fulfilled, too.
There’s no requirement to trend any higher, especially so long as 1898.00 is holding its retest. That could be a probe above this morning’s 1900.25 high that exits the bias environment back under 1898.00.
Neither is there any requirement to trend back down. Exiting the bias environment back under 1895.50 would at least suggest the bias environment had fulfilled buyers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Dallas Fed has no track record for its survey influencing price action. Monday is otherwise quiet regarding econ reports.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1897.00 | 1890.00 |
| …would target | 1902.50 | 1895.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1888.00 | 1881.00 |
| …would target | 1882.00 | 1875.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.