Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding pattern.
Post-open gains retraced.
The open’s test of 1892.00 didn’t surge higher. Extending up required first blipping-down to 1887.00 stretched the rubber band. Its reversal tested the next higher objective at 1898.00.
1898.00 was probed up to 1900.00. Throughout a half-hour, every high bar also overlapped 1898.00. The next half hour retraced the open back down to 1890.00.
And now the open’s blip-down to 1887.00 is being retraced, too, down to 1886.00.
This being a Friday, the open’s bias should persist. So, having maintained an uptrend through 10:15, selling pressure should be counter-trend, sponsored by weak hands — and likely to be retraced at least to retest 1898.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally to 1892.00 hasn’t been rejected, but neither has it extended. Still hovering just under 1892.00 kept alive potential for surging at the open, if not already surging into it.
Surging through the open doesn’t assure it being more than a blip-up that finds itself reversing back down just minutes later. And there’s still no assurance of probing above 1892.00 resistance, which would become moot back under 1885.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… They’re trying again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open recovered a dip that attacked 1840.00 to probe fresh highs testing 1883.00 into the noon hour. Reacting down throughout the bias environment held unchanged levels at 1852.00. The balance of the session firmed to test Wednesday’s 1869.00 high by several ticks.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending Thursday’s late-afternoon 1855.00-1870.00 range ended before midnight, replaced by a rally back to and through Thursday’s highs to 1892.00.
If, then…
There is significant resistance at 1892.00. Its first test as support had launched a bounce that delayed the decline, and its first test as resistance had reacted down to resume the decline to new lows. It is also the 261.8% projection of a Complex Triangle that had formed during last night’s initial ranging. Exiting the open above it can successfully overcome both elements of its resistance, and allow trending higher intraday. Maintaining a gap up would also overcome that yesterday’s rally gained no traction. Otherwise, even if gapping up, not trending sufficiently higher through the open would be vulnerable to trend back down. Either way, being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist into the afternoon. The weekend’s impending illiquidity has a way of exacerbating trending.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1890.00 would be unlikely to reverse the overnight rally. Exiting the open under 1883.50 would become likely at least to test the 1875.00 bias-up target as support.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1875.75 | 1868.75 |
| …would target | 1882.00 | 1875.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1860.50 | 1853.50 |
| …would target | 1853.75 | 1846.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending back down Thursday afternoon was avoided, but the next likelier scenario was not to trend at all. So, the alternative was not to rally, but to range sideways into the close.
This was the result of having bounced back up to yesterday’s late 1869.00 high while the bias environment was lapsing. Combining that with no traction being gained, left the market hovering nervously with two days of illiquidity fast-approaches.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.