Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Dug in.
Afternoon action glued to yesterday’s high.
Extending down under the afternoon’s 1863.00 bias-down signal touched 1852.00 before snapping back up. The final hour’s entry was testing 1870.00.
Each is well under the noon hour’s 1873.25 low. But not successively lower, so sellers gained no traction. A dip to 1858.00 is now retesting 1870.00 as the position-squaring window opens.
This is also yesterday’s recovery high. Still ranging around it through today’s close is undermining the credibility of yesterday’s rally. A late surge is possible, but its origin would be too late to suggest a bigger bottom is in.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dropping immediately Thursday tested the upper-end of the 1.0750-1.0785 target area. Rather than probe lower, let alone resume the decline, the balance of the session bounced to test 1.0900.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down to the 1100.00 pullback limit and extending slightly under it Thursday required its recovery through the close to maintain the near-term upside momentum. Having failed that but not extending down intraday, gapping up above 1100.00 Friday would be credible for extending to fresh highs into the weekend.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday and Wednesday’s bounce up to 14.10 was retraced again Thursday down to 13.88, still not confirming the break higher while likely forming a sizable base. Bouncing to close back up at 14.00 does make it easier for Friday to extend higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Actually closing under 160-12 Thursday now suggests the flight-to-safety is done. The minimum pullback potential to 159-06 is already largely fulfilled. Meanwhile, closing back above 160-28 Friday would reinstate the flight-to-safety, and the next higher objective at 162-26.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only probing positive territory Thursday is helping to form a bottom, and extending higher into the weekend Friday has become possible again for the first time in weeks. Closing above 31.00 would signal a bigger corrective bounce underway already.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Choppy knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report held the 2.14 level, more as an attraction than as either support or resistance. Almost any early firming Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Mid-day Update… Time’s up for holding up?
Not attracting buyers.
The noon hour began hopefully, trending up from 1863.00 to fresh session highs. Attacking the afternoon’s 1883.50 bias-up target to within 1 tick was quickly reversed to range widely around the afternoon’s 1877.25 bias-up signal.
Bias-up did not trigger. So, the no-bias environment was likely to be contained between its bias signals. In fact, the balance of the bias environment drifted down to its 1863.00 bias-down signal.
Fresh lows extended already to attack 1852.00. At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively there, and its reaction is attacking 1864.00. Extending above 1867.50 would be credible for revisiting at least today’s high. Back under 1858.00 would simply resume the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s LEI report is higher-profile than the PMI, but both have track records for influencing price action. The Chicago Fed survey does not.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1884.50 | 1877.25 |
| …would target | 1890.50 | 1883.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1870.00 | 1863.00 |
| …would target | 1864.25 | 1857.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.