Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Hanging by a thread.
Fresh session lows sitting on another precipice.
Chipping away at this afternoon’s 1974.75 bias-down target finally gave way. The chart makes clear that it was critical support, as the last leg overlapping it suddenly plunges 13 points.
Plunging through 1865.00-1868.00 ultimately extended to attack 1856.00. Its reaction just touched 1868.00.
Sellers didn’t gain traction for the effort. The bias environment’s exit was definitely under the noon hour’s low, but the final hour’s entry was back within the bias environment’s range. So, we already know that extending down tomorrow would require gapping down.
Not gaining traction doesn’t prevent extending down today, anyway — especially since 1865.00-1868.00 wasn’t recovered through a relevant timing window. Back under 1862.00 would resume the decline under Friday’s 1850.00 low. Back above 1868.75 could form a bigger detour to 1874.75.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from 1.1000 filled the gap at 1.0850 before bouncing back above 1.0950, whose recovery undermines the attraction down to 1.0750.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday did not suggest another attempt at probing 1089.00 resistance, or any of the peaks to its prior probes. Filling the gap back down to Thursday’s 1071.50 close can’t be discounted.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and hovering in positive territory Tuesday might seem like “ineffectual optimism,” but it was pessimistic in comparison to the overnight highs that chipped away further at 14.10 resistance.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Weakness was limited Sunday night and Monday when there was no catalyst for a “flight-to-safety,” but Tuesday’s reaction was very responsive to the broader market weakness. Still, no higher high is required.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night and Monday choppiness was duplicated Tuesday as a bounce to 30.25 reacted down to attack Sunday night’s lows down to 28.50. Recovering back above 30.25 could now launch a multi-session rally.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping Sunday night to 2.05 had reacted up short of 2.23, and Tuesday’s post-open test of 2.14 resistance reacted down intraday. Closing above 2.14 would now reverse momentum up.
Mid-day Update… Encroachment.
Not rejecting the dip back into Friday’s range.
This morning’s open shouldn’t have probed back under Friday’s 1981.00 high to be confident in the pullback holding. At least the probe was brief, and reacted up sharply to prove the level’s relevance.
In fact, the reaction up was 17 points, further proving the relevance of holding Friday’s range as support. But the reaction was only temporary. Deeper and deeper dips have been chipping away at its support.
This afternoon’s bias-down triggered under 1880.25. Its 1874.75 bias-down target held as support through 1:20 to avoid renewing the signal. Still, it’s a bias-down environment whose next lower objective is 1865.00-1868.00.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back above 1881.00 would rob sellers of their traction. But momentum reversing up won’t be signaled under 1885.00.
Livestox today at 4:45pm ET
Tuesday’s Livestox begins at 4:45pm ET. Please enter through the link below.
The meeting will be recorded, and the recording will be distributed tonight.
Meanwhile, request your stock chart analyses in this post’s comments section in the blog. Or, join us in real-time…
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open CPI has a track record of influencing price action. Being announced simultaneous to it can make Housing Starts capable of influencing price action, too, if its metric is at all surprising.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET