Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1899.00 | 1891.50 |
| …would target | 1906.00 | 1898.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1887.75 | 1880.25 |
| …would target | 1882.25 | 1874.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Playing defense.
Overnight rally’s pre-open reversal extends deeper through the open.
Already dipping from 1907.50 to 1894.00 changed the challenge from recovering Thursday’s ~1914.00 close, to recovering Thursday’s 1895.00 low.
It was not. Selling instead steepened at the open on its way down to 1878.00.
Piercing Friday’s 1881.00 upper-end was quickly rejected in time to trigger its bias-up signal. But the 1887.50 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. So, natural resistance at the 1894.00 open has pushed price back under 1881.00.
If testing 1881.00 once wasn’t optimal to a recovery, then retesting it is bearish. The bias-up environment is within view2 of lapsing, so its bias-up signal no longer need hold as support.
Back above the 1887.50 bias-up target would indicate that selling pressure had been absorbed. Otherwise, no rejecting the post-open slide — and extending it lower through the noon hour — would target 1865.00-1868.00 and potentially new lows.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
RSIs diverged negatively at the rally’s retest of 1907.50. Its reaction has trended down to 1894.75. Greeting the open from above 1899.25 would help to attract post-open sponsorship to extend the recovery — filling the gap back up to Thursday’s ~1914.00 close would be the attraction. Otherwise, not recovering 1899.25 through the open would be attracted down to 1881.00-1885.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Bouncing, while it can.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration session had gapped down and tried recovering, but was resisted by 1881.00. Extending back down into the noon hour tested 1850.00 as support. The balance of the session rallied back up to the morning’s highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down and slide to 1860.00 was recovered into Monday morning, probing Friday’s highs up to 1890.00. Monday night’s dip back down to 1868.00 was recovered back up to and through Monday’s highs , most recently touching 1907.50.
If, then…
Just recovering 1881.00-1885.00 and 1892.00 would have suggested a corrective rally was underway. But already trending well above those levels only raises the standard. Filling the gap back up to Thursday’s ~1914.00 close should maintain its probe above 1912.00 “higher prior lows” to extend higher. Otherwise, post-open action would have plenty of room to trend back down through the morning — potentially back to 1881.00-1885.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 1899.25.00 would be likely to spend the morning backing-and-filling to as low as 1881.00-1885.00. Exiting the open above 1916.00 could double he overnight rally, adding 25 or 40 points more.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1888.00 | 1881.00 |
| …would target | 1894.50 | 1887.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1875.00 | 1868.00 |
| …would target | 1869.00 | 1862.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.