Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2495.75 | 2495.50 |
| …would target | 2504.75 | 2504.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2481.50 | 2481.50 |
| …would target | 2474.00 | 2474.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Three distinct probes above Thursday’s 2499.00 high each reacted back into negative territory Friday. Each reaction down was on the precipice of reversing the trend down, but held.
A lot of buying pressure was expended to counteract the last reaction down. It was testing the afternoon’s 2482.00 low before entering the position-squaring window at 3:37. Already having probed a fresh high, there was no unfinished business above requiring a retest. So, Monday’s likely resolution is either to compensate for Friday’s delay by gapping down, or else for a gap up to probe fresh highs.
Gapping down could extend, if not collapse, as the market realizes two things: 1) that everyone has been front-running themselves to already deploy quarter-end and year-end purchases, and 2) that the recovery from Tuesday night’s 2317.00 low has been a temporary bear market rally. A slightly higher high testing 2525.25 would be preferable before reversing down, but not necessary. Gapping up could soon fulfill 2525.25, and either reverse down from there or else extend to the next higher bounce potential at 2548.00-2556.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rejecting Wednesday’s close under prior lows by gapping up back above them Thursday, was improved by also closing above the 1.1500 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm, but it was still being tested as support.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight fulfilled the 1284.00 target. A new trend extreme prohibits the same session from triggering a reversal signal. Now the rally can extend to 1319.50 so long as pullbacks hold 1273.50 as support.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already probing higher overnight and maintained through Friday’s close fulfills the minimum requirement of Wednesday’s confirmed breakout for at least an eventual third higher close. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold any test of 15.30 as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s close back above the 145-08 buy signal didn’t extend higher intraday, or overnight, and desperately needs a second consecutive higher close on Friday to confirm the consolidation is resolving in a new upleg. Otherwise, closing back under 144-22 would trigger a downleg.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging continued hovering optimistically above the 43.35-44.15 pullback limit whose test would be likely to launch a bigger recovery leg.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive higher sessions since testing the decline’s 3.26 target were retraced entirely Friday at Wednesday’s intraday low. A basing/bottoming pattern is free to begin forming at any time, sooner rather than later to avoid letting the reversal extend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 31, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s New Year’s Eve, but there’s business to be done, so markets are open traditionally for regular hours. Globex is closed until a regular open at 6:00 pm ET on New Year’s Day.
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.75 | 2502.50 |
| …would target | 2511.25 | 2511.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2484.50 | 2484.25 |
| …would target | 2477.25 | 2477.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.