Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… The range persists.
Morning dip is retraced.
I had noted this morning that perhaps the most bullish development was probing under the 2495.50 bias-up signal when it was too late for sellers to gain traction for their effort. 
Trending was already going to be difficult. Not only for being a bias-up environment, although its bias-up target had been met, but also because the open had spent so much time overlapping the target.
Probing under 2495.50 to 2482.75 filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction. And the reward to patient buyers for absorbing the dip is this afternoon’s 2502.50 bias-up signal putting into play its 2510.00 bias-up target — already being met to within 3 ticks so it won’t become “unfinished business” in case of reversing down.
Sellers aren’t marginalized. All of today’s price action has developed within Friday’s last leg. Buyers have gained traction for their efforts by triggering bias-up, but their target is already met. And it’s only an inside day. Extending higher would have potential for trending to 2525.25. But exiting the bias environment in decline could still trend down through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy New Year! Markets are closed, of course. But futures resume trading normally overnight on Globex.
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.25 | 2502.50 |
| …would target | 2509.75 | 2510.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2483.00 | 2483.50 |
| …would target | 2476.25 | 2476.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The whimper persists.
No improvement to last night’s gap up.
Sunday night’s Globex open had gapped up in reaction to Trump’s weekend China trade tweet. Despite a presumably bullish environment and the tweet’s catalyst, the gap only corrected Friday’s last reaction down. Only firming overnight suggested no strong-handed buyers were coming.
Weak-handed reinforcements could have arrived, their reward being to retest Friday’s high and its borderline overbought RSIs up 2525.25. But 2512.50 overnight high had reacted down to 2501.00, and its post-open blip-up has reacted down to 2494.00.
Nevertheless, this is a bias-up environment, whose 2495.50 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end. A bounce back up to the 2504.50 bias-up target wouldn’t be surprising, since 3 of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped it.
Lower lows would target filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2486.00-2487.00 close. Delaying lower lows until this afternoon would be less defensible, and could more easily extend down into a collapse.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Out with a whimper?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s close barely lost 5 points from Thursday’s 2492.00 close. Not for lack of trying, with two overnight probes of higher highs, and a third higher high Friday afternoon. The last peaked 2 points short of its potential to 2525.25 before attacking the morning’s low down to 2477.00, and closing at 2487.00. Three higher highs, one intraday, yet each reaction down barely probed into negative territory. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were on the cusp of being overbought at the late high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex reacted immediately to the weekend’s favorable China trade tweet from Trump. The open’s gap up retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late drop at 2505.50. Flat-to-higher ranging has recently extended to 2512.50 — still 2-4 points under the retracement’s room for noise, and under Friday’s high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
With apologies to Eliot, 2018 seems poised to go out not with a bang, but with a whimper. This could be the effect if the algorithms (i.e. hallow men) are turned off while their human oversight is less available. Gapping up and essentially trending up all night has barely even attacked the room for noise back up to Friday’s high. I don’t interpret this muted upside as being potentially bullish restrained optimism, not yet. A lot of buying pressure was expended intraday Friday to prevent its reactions down from becoming a downleg, and that ineffectual optimism may yet have bearish consequences. Meanwhile, Friday’s fresh afternoon high neutralized any structural unfinished business above. Technical unfinished business above at the high’s simultaneously overbought RSIs may still retested up to the calculable 2525.25 objective — neither one prevents a downleg while outstanding, and could enable a downleg/collapse upon being neutralized. All of which is within the context of a temporary bear market rally from last Tuesday night’s 2317.00 low, and the possibility that year-end institutional buying has front-run itself to already be done. Again, I point to the muted overnight gains has been a temporary bear market rally. Extending higher anyway could extend to the next higher bounce potential at 2548.00-2556.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2507.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2504.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2499.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2495.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.