Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers are almost a non-event now, but I’ll still highlight their appearances. The afternoon’s Beige Book will be more influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
7:45 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Alternative Globex link
The overnight chaRTroom hiccuped, just enough to take it off line.
CLICK HERE for an alternative link until the morning’s blog post.
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1931.75 | 1924.75 |
| …would target | 1937.50 | 1930.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1919.75 | 1912.75 |
| …would target | 1913.25 | 1906.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Two optimists walk into a bar. The first one says, “Hey, where’d everybody go?”
Another gap up? Another reversal back under the open? No learning curve is this slow. Expiration is coming, and the position-jockeying is ongoing.
This morning’s extension of the overnight rally didn’t reject its test of 1938.00. But 1938.00 wasn’t clearly recovered, and was still being overlapped at 9:45. Its recovery offered a lot of reward — Christmas in January. But its reaction down is testing 1918.00.
20 points of the high is a lot of selling. Even more so — that comes after testing what would have been the renewed bias-up target at 1938.75, back under the 1933.50 bias-up target, and not yet rejecting the 1927.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
It’s rare enough to reject tests of both bias parameters through 10:15. Rejecting them AND their renewed bias-up target is unlikely. In fact, the bias-up signal wasn’t rejected. It was being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
A simple correction still has room down to 1912.00 or 1907.00 before suggesting the decline has resumed. This post-open dip can resume the decline since the open didn’t gain traction. Entering or exiting the noon hour above a prior high would suggest the post-open dip was just a correction, after all.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
[We’re using the Screencast facility for recordings during this transition to Anymeeting. Please report any difficulties immediately.]
The overnight recovery back up to yesterday’s opening 1929.00 high has extended pre-open to 1937.50. It’s attacking relevant resistance from Friday afternoon at 1938.00, while also probing 1933.50. Either can reverse the market back down if their post-open tests aren’t extended higher through 9:45. Extending higher would have a big reward in mind for the effort.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.