Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The bounce from the 1931.00 overnight lows is now 5 hours old, and testing 1949.00. The attraction above up to 1954.00-1956.50 remains intact so long as 1943.50 now holds tests as support through the open. Much lower for much longer would start to signal the overnight decline has resumed already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… The storm before the storm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o New! Omnistream
o Anymeeting backup
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down back under Monday’s low to 1977.00 was already recovering from lower lows overnight. The recovery extended through the morning back up to 1995.00 — almost convincingly. Equilibrium reversed the rally down to new lows under 1971.00. Regardless of being convincing, sellers had gained traction. And regardless of the decline gaining traction, the last hour rallied back up to 1984.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-hour’s rally extended hopefully into the Globex open, hesitating at 1991.00 ahead of China’s open. Ahh, China’s open. Its immediate plunge and immediate halt triggered a drop under Wednesday’s lows to 1961.00-1962.00. That 30-point drop eventually doubled down to 1931.00. Three hours later, price has firmed up to 1944.00.
If, then…
Extending yesterday’s initial 40-point decline intraday would have doubled it. Delaying it didn’t prevent it, and delaying it didn’t delay it for very long. Is the drop hurrying itself down to a bottom, or posturing itself to triple itself? Probably the latter — buyers are becoming increasingly conditioned to the new trend, and the weekend’s illiquidity is fast-approaching. The next lower objective is 1912.00 with room for noise down to 1907.00. Rallying first anyway would find resistance at 1954.00-1956.50. I have no active templates at this stage that contain a path to recovery before extending down sharply, presumably for the long-awaited duplication and magnification of August’s plunge. TGInyF (thank goodness it’s not yet Friday).
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1949.00 would be likely to extend its bounce up to 1954.00-1956.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1937.25 would be likely to resume the decline to fresh lows.
Livestox Thursday @ 12:15pm ET
So, the market. Am I right?
Even the most qualified January Effect candidates can do little more than wait out the storm. And the storm has only gotten stronger. We’ll review compelling situations during Thursday’s Livestox…
CLICK HERE to login by 12:15 ET.
Post your chart analysis requests in the blog.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1995.50 | 1987.50 |
| …would target | 2001.25 | 1993.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1981.00 | 1973.00 |
| …would target | 1974.00 | 1966.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s last hour bounced. Sharply. Its 14-point rally from a fresh low at 1970.50 retested the afternoon’s 1984.25 bias-down signal as resistance. Of course, the 45 minutes before it had fallen from 1988.00.
During that late fall, the bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, and the final hour was entered lower. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, likely to be rewarded Thursday morning by probing under Wednesday’s low.
Extending higher into and out of Wednesday’s close did attack the prior high to within a couple of ticks. Too late, though to gain traction for its effort. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 1995.00-1998.00 highs could invert the decline’s traction, instead.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.