Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2058.75 | 2050.50 |
| …would target | 2064.25 | 2056.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2050.00 | 2042.00 |
| …would target | 2044.75 | 2036.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
(Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer… Sorry!)
The afternoon’s bias environment wasn’t exited above the morning’s high, making further upside more difficult, if not unlikely. But buyers had barely tried to probe higher, so there wasn’t much failure deserving a bearish consequence. So, the balance of the session was contained within the afternoon bias environment’s range.
The afternoon bias environment had probed above the morning’s high, and failed. That was an unsuccessful effort. But it didn’t result in a probe under prior lows, or in any downleg. This keeps the door open to rallying Tuesday — unless sellers retake control immediately.
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts Monday. So, gapping open in either direction would be credible for extending in that direction. Not gapping would be more difficult to extend before the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvptc
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Don’t blink.
Another path higher has come available, momentarily.
Triggering this afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t delay extending to touch the 2048.50 bias-up target. And touching the 2048.50 bias-up target didn’t delay reacting down.
Having recovered from a fresh low, exiting the afternoon’s bias environment back above the morning’s 2047.00 high would signal a trend reversal. Its objective would be the origin of the fresh low’s leg, which was Thursday’s 2059.75 high.
Sounds bullish.
But the morning’s 2047.00 high was only probed temporarily. Not even testing it would have been more bullish than to test it and NOT exit the bias environment back above it.
There’s still time to rally as the bias environment lapses into the final hour. But not much time, so any valid recovery should be sudden, steep and substantial. Without there being a real recovery attempt, let alone its failure, further downside isn’t likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Last Tuesday’s bonce had neutralized an upside attraction before reversing down aggressively Wednesday. Monday’s retest of last Tuesday’s high is redundant, so the corrective dip targeting 1.0750-1.0785 must be resumed immediately if valid.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Thursday back above 1074.00 had suggested the corrective dip was ending, but recovering 1077.70 was still needed to reverse the trend up. Monday’s dip to .
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s close above 14.35 was never confirmed before Monday’s gap down back under 14.10 that extended lower intraday to test 13.88. That’s essentially a 61.8% retracement of the base, so closing back above 14.10 Tuesday would trigger a new buy signal.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap Thursday back up to 154-30 didn’t require resuming the decline, but room for extending the corrective bounce up to 155-29 was utilized entirely Monday. Closing back under 154-30 would start to signal a new downleg is underway, confirmed under 154-16.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s dip held support down to the 36.75 buy signal that was triggered and confirmed by last week’s two consecutive higher closes. The gap outstanding back to Thursday’s close can now attract price back up if a deeper correction back to 36.15 can be avoided.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last week’s confirmed breakout at 1.98 and 2.04 resumed by gapping up Sunday night and extending higher intraday Monday to test 2.22. The third eventual higher close is now fulfilled. Extending higher requires pullbacks to hold 2.14 or 2.10
Mid-day Update… Morning gory.
Were morning’s buyers a little slow on the uptake?
This morning’s drop came within 1 point of its next lower objective at 2034.25. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs improved into the low, so that might be sufficient for a bottom to form after this morning’s recovery attempt failed.
So far, a bounce has attacked 2043.00. Much higher much later could trigger this afternoon’s bias-up signal. That would trap the overnight extreme sentiment and the morning’s extension. The pre-open bounce would extend back to last week’s highs.
That bullish path isn’t at all assured or required. In fact, this morning’s one credible rally setup was attempted and rejected. There is no “unfinished business below” outstanding, so buyers aren’t marginalized.
But sellers certainly aren’t marginalized, either. A fresh session high above 2047.00 is needed to reverse the trend up. Until then, the decline is vulnerable to resuming. And having stopped short of it 2034.25 objective, potential to 2032.00 is a likelier attraction.