Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2075.00 | 2067.25 |
| …would target | 2079.00 | 2071.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2069.25 | 2061.50 |
| …would target | 2062.75 | 2055.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… It just gets better.
Post-open surge takes the last leg up.
The pre-open surge to 2063.75 tested a two-week old pivotal high that had to be exceeded if touched post-open. That was ensured by surging from the 2061.00 open to 2066.00.
Eking higher has now attacked 2069.00, the two-week old actual high. The resolution to its test is less relevant at this stage. But the pattern has been to stop pessimistically short of resistance before a corrective dip launches a new upleg.
A corrective dip back under 2066.00 could end at 2064.00 or 2061.50 — still well into positive territory and above the open. Much lower would have room to the 2055.00 area, as more of the corrective dip, without reversing the trend down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 5-point pullback from touching Thursday’s 2059.75 high was recovered to fresh highs. Much higher fresh highs, at 2063.75. Now a two-week old pivotal high is being tested. Testing it post-open but not exceeding it would be likely to back-and-fill this morning back down to the 2055.00 area.
That’s not the bearish template. Backing-and-filling would help to siphon off excess optimism and to find buyers below. The bearish template would fail to hold the 2055.00 area as support, and the 2050.50 bias-up signal, while plunging into negative territory.
Trending sharply and relentlessly overnight leaves the door wide open to any near-term resolution.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkbvwf
The First Trade… Santa’s back in town.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
My, how quickly times change. The holiday break ended yesterday by trending down Sunday night from 2052.00 to almost 2040.00. Monday’s open was greeted by a bounce attacking the morning’s 2047.00 bias-down signal as resistance. It was too shallow to reverse the overnight trending, but high enough to refuel sellers. The drop extended through the morning to attack 2035.00. The balance of the session trended back up to close above the morning’s high, but too late and by too little to assure trending higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
Not signaling a trend reversal doesn’t prevent it. Firming to test 2051.00 and then 2052.00 retested Thursday’s close. Europe’s opens triggered a surge touching Thursday’s 2059.75 high. Now a pullback is attacking 2055.00.
If, then…
Cleanly recovering yesterday morning’s high through the close would have targeted the interim decline’s origin, which is Thursday’s high. Testing an objective not yet put it into-play can be more difficult to extend through it. Yesterday’s recovery attempt didn’t gain traction for its effort, so maintaining a gap up would be entirely credible for extending higher intraday.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2054.25 would be likely to trigger the 2050.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2059.00 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2056.25 bias-up target through 10:15.
Disregard the “order” email
Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer… Sorry!
I’ve heard from several subscribers about the email referenced above, “Order Failed.” My message about it should have been clearer.
The email was sent to all subscribers, when it only should have been loaded in the mailer. There is no error, and I am very sorry for the confusion it caused.
See you in the morning!