Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s rally gained traction for its efforts — the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s range, and the final hour was entered higher. The 3:10-3:20 timing window didn’t have to trend higher, but tried, and failed. Reacting down helped to temper the emerging optimism before the close.
If Tuesday’s rally is rewarded by probing higher Wednesday morning, then it has potential up to 2091.25 and 2096.00, potentially on the way to 2102.00. A shallow opening dip would still be likely to recover and resume rallying during the afternoon. But dipping deeper than 2067.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbxssb
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… New highs, no surge.
Defending fresh highs.
This afternoon’s 2067.25 bias-up signal and 2071.25 bias-up target were approached with the same pessimism we’ve cataloged throughout the day. From a contrarian perspective, that made higher highs likely.
Higher highs up to 2072.75 were consolidated, where pessimism was joined by signs of optimism — blipping up momentarily. A reaction down to 2069.75 has bounced to 2072.00, and any higher could extend the rally.
Similarly, any lower low under 2069.75 would target a little deeper back into the earlier range, potentially deeper.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s bounce back up to last Tuesday’s highs was rejected in the same way, by gapping down. The pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785 remains intact.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight to 1074.00 resistance was in-line with having stopped the decline’s momentum, but must still close above 1077.70 to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce helps to confirm that Monday’s dip to the base’s 61.8% retracement had held, but only closing above 14.10 would signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held Monday’s corrective bounce limit at 155-30, Tuesday’s reversal back under 154-30 was credible for launching a new downleg. Its break already extended to fresh lows at 153-08.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s pullback to the 36.75 buy signal had held, as confirmed by Tuesday’s gap up back above it attacking 38.00. Wednesday and Thursday’s breakout and consecutive confirmation still require at least an eventual third higher close.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher overnight to gap up Tuesday exceeded the 1.29 target by a dime, suggesting that the next higher objective at 1.50 is in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2.28 as support.
Mid-day Update… Another leg?
Bias-up sets stage for yet another session surge.
Not just another upleg, but another surge. There were two overnight and one at the open up to 2069.00. Backing-and-filling down to 2064.00 has resolved up to 2070.00. This afternoon’s 2067.25 bias-up signal was triggered along the way.
The bias-up target isn’t much higher, around 2071.00. But the late break to fresh session highs suggests that sellers are being patient — and that’s strong-handed. Plunging 5-1/2 points before the noon hour is aggressive and impatient — and weak-handed.
Regardless of the potential upside, price action is still ranging around the opening surge’s 2069.00 peak. Breaking free of it won’t be easy, but it should be rewarded by a surge to fresh highs. Back under 2066.00 would suggest momentum is reversing down instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 30, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s weekly EIA report has become more influential to broader market action as Crude Oil’s potential bottom becomes more influential. The 7-year is starting to get far enough out on the yield curve that it’s auction might inhibit price action until done.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET