Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2076.50 | 2069.00 |
| …would target | 2081.25 | 2074.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2068.25 | 2061.00 |
| …would target | 2062.50 | 2055.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Grudgingly lower.
Bias-down target met, RSIs firm, bad news discounted.
The shallowly weak open at this morning’s 2068.00 bias-down signal immediately extended to fresh lows at 2064.00 and lower. A bounce reversed down even lower. The 2061.50 bias-down target was just touched.
The bounce attacked the bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks at 2067.50.Having resolved in a fresh low, recovering 2067.50 would still be credible for reversing momentum back up. This may be today’s only remaining path to probing above yesterday’s highs. RSIs weren’t oversold at the low, and back above 2063.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back up
Also potentially bullish is Crude Oil’s reaction to a bearish EIA report. We discussed that possibility during the pre-market Tour. An emotional reaction would be likely, but likely only temporary, as the news would follow two earlier bearish items (API and Saudis) that are already discounted. If Crude isn’t actually extending down, then stocks have a chance to bottom.
Otherwise, no lower objective is in-play. But not signaling a recovery could simply drift lower.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A shallowly weak open would still be able to probe fresh highs this morning, or else this afternoon. Pre-open selling is testing that limit, all but likely to probe under yesterday’s 2065.00 noon hour low. Recovering it through the open back above 2069.00 and 2070.50 could have a rubber band effect that surges to fresh highs. Otherwise, the weak open won’t be so shallow, after all, opening the door to a much weaker morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrmvfz
The First Trade… Shallowly weak, at the moment.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Surging out of a gap up quickly found a momentum peak Tuesday morning at 2069.00. The noon hour’s exit resumed rallying into the final hour up to 2074.50. The rally gained traction by the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry. The balance of the session ranged sideways, even dipping momentarily to touch the morning’s 2069.00 high as support.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s high was pierced by 2-3 ticks while waiting for Europe’s opens. That wasn’t helpful. A 5-point slide quickly tested 2067.00, and price has been ranging around yesterday morning’s 2069.00 high.
If, then…
Tuesday’s traction should be rewarded by probing higher Wednesday morning. That can be delayed until the afternoon if a shallowly weak open isn’t soon recovered — and currently the open is indicated to be shallowly weak. Deteriorating much more would threaten yesterday’s 2065.00 noon hour low, and gapping much lower could offset Tuesday’s upside traction. Although tomorrow’s volume will be relatively strong for a three-day holiday weekend, trending this afternoon would be difficult to stop, regardless of whether it is up or down.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.00 would be likely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2070.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2082.75 | 2075.25 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2081.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2075.50 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2069.00 | 2061.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.