Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… No action for traction.
Ranging choppily sideways, not recovering.
The bias environment started by attacking this morning’s low, right back down to its 2061.50 bias-down signal. It held again. No-bias triggered, and the afternoon’s bias environment ranged sideways back up to 2065.75. And back down again.
The bias environment began lapsing within the noon hour’s 2062.25-2065.25 range, so it isn’t predictive. The final hour’s entry is attacking the noon hour’s lower-end. Trending down through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could meltdown into the close.
Otherwise, the nearest buy signal is where it has been all afternoon at 2065.75. If it’s triggered, then it should be triggered aggressively to overcome the lack of any hint it will even be challenged.
The last Livestox of 2015 is tomorrow
Thursday’s Livestox at 12:15pm ET will be the year’s last. We’ll discuss January Effect candidates and Cannabis sector stocks, and review any stock chart’s you request. HERE’S THE LINK.
On the first two topics, there is increasing overlap.
CANV is the latest to add bullish price action to its expanding volume. The decline has formed a potentially bullish “Falling Wedge” that is trying to break higher today.
NTRR almost came from out of nowhere to quadruple this week. Now it is completing a 61.8% retracement of its initial rally leg, which is natural support.
MDBX may have gotten overdone to the downside. But any bounce would likely be only to neutralize the extended decline, and probably not to reverse it.
Bring your candidates and other requests to Livestox. Alternatively, add your chart analysis request to this post’s comments section.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s opening bobble at least didn’t extend the test of 1.1010 resistance, whose test should not further delay launching a downleg if the 1.0750-1.0785 pullback target remains in-play.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply at Wednesday’s open probed into the 1057.00-1061.50 support whose break would target 1039.00-1041.00. Even that extra leg to fresh lows could still be part of a bigger bottoming pattern. Closing above 1074.00 and not under 1057.00 would be more assured of a bottom.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed Tuesday to reject Monday’s plunge, probing fresh lows Wednesday at 13.80. It must be rejected without delay to avoid probing new lows.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive lower close was avoided Wednesday despite probing fresh lows in the morning. So, Tuesday’s breakout was not confirmed, which would have required at least an eventual third lower close.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having reacted poorly to a bearish Saudi production announcement, the reaction to Wednesday’s bearish EIA report was expected only to be emotional, and temporary. Testing 36.50, there is still room down to 36.00, but not really any reason to avoid rallying.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday created an Island ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But so long as 2.14-2.23 were to hold as support, then the news is being greeted from a position of strength. Islands are made to be retested, whether or not on the way to higher highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 31, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s post-open PMI report is released earlier to its institutional clients, which often triggers a reaction in the markets that is duplicated when released publicly. The afternoon rig count can be relevant, too, since Crude Oil has been influencing price action and the Rig Count has been influencing Crude Oil.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Mid-day Update… and an announcement.
Market Wrap starts half-hour early at 3:33pm ET.
Also, I’m away from screens between 12:35 – 1:45 ET.
This morning’s 2061.50 bias-down target has held its test. But its test has not been rejected. The morning’s bias environment did react up to 2066.50, still 1 point short of the bounce preceding 2061.50.
But no higher. And no lower.
Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would have reversed momentum up. That didn’t happen, so entering the noon hour above the open’s 2068.00 highs would have made fresh highs likely. Didn’t happen either, so exiting the noon hour above 2070.50 would be optimal for confirming the uptrend has resumed.
There’s otherwise no requirement to trend down — only the greater vulnerability so long as yesterday afternoon’s upside traction isn’t being influential.