Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… No respite.
Pre-open plunge extending post-open.
The overnight Symmetrical Triangle broke sharply in one direction. As sharply as possible to still be within the Symmetrical Triangle’s orbit. That kept it vulnerable to being a false breakout that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction, if already reversing up by 9:45.
But the clock kept ticking.
The 2045.50 pre-open low was a 261.8% extension of the Triangle. Retesting it had to be done and recovered almost immediately to be dismissed as opening noise. The open’s 5-point plunge to 2043.00 did react up immediately back above 2045.50. Extending higher would leave no new low requiring a retest.
But the clock kept ticking.
Multiple tests of 2043.00 held their 3-minute lows, but the reactions couldn’t recover 2045.50. Chipping away at their support could have avoided requiring an eventual break lower, regardless of the path there.
But the clock stopped ticking.
The 2046.00 bias-down target wasn’t recovered by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal and putting into play 2039.00. It was quickly met by a 6-point plunge to 2037.00.
2039.00 has so far held, its test reacting up to 2041.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require its retest, probably down to 2036.25. Back above 2044.50 would start to suggest the oversold RSIs will be left outstanding by a bigger detour.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight Symmetrical Triangle has broken lower. Sharply lower. The 261.8% extension at 2045.50 is the break’s low.
Now the pattern may try conforming to its common resolution, namely –f breaking falsely in one direction, and then reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. This would require a reversal to be underway and obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
A retest the pre-open low isn’t necessary, but can be dismissed if only a blip-down and recovered early. Otherwise, extending down could test 2029.00 and potentially 2019.50 today.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrxtbf
The First Trade… Crouching tiger?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction for their efforts. Gapping down Wednesday back to Tuesday’s 2065.00 noon hour lows was on the borderline of negating that traction. Quickly fulfilling the morning’s 2061.50 bias-down target held through the day, but never launched a recovery. The last half-hour exploited that delay by plunging 10 points to 2053.50. Its reaction up attacked 2060.00 before trending back down toward the plunge’s low.
Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge’s consolidation has persisted, narrowing its range between 2054.00-2058.00. The plunge’s low hasn’t been touched (that’s basis ES, while SP had only plunged to 2054.50). The resulting overnight pattern has formed a massive Symmetrical Triangle.
If, then…
Any influence by overnight patterns on intraday action will be obvious through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, if at all. So, if the overnight Symmetrical Triangle intends to resolve as the pattern often does (i.e. break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction), then that reversal must be underway by 9:45. Otherwise, already breaking in one direction would be less likely to reverse direction this morning. So, maintaining a break into and out of the open — whether higher, or lower — would be credible for extending in that direction intraday. Reversing a break would be likely to extend if the reversal were maintained through 9:45. And although today’s volume is relatively heavy for a pre-holiday weekend, it’s not necessarily liquid, and a one-sided market could trend relentlessly into the afternoon if given the right shove.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2052.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2062.50 would be likely to trigger the 2061.00 bias-up signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s last half-hour finally probed under what had been the the morning’s 2061.50 bias-down target. It didn’t require a break, but a Descending Triangle had formed since buyers couldn’t produce a higher high.
That pattern, the break’s late timing, and impending three-day weekend, all combined for a perfect storm that plunged down to 2053.50. A bounce attacked 2060.00 before reversing back down to the low. To within 1 tick.
Last Thursday’s “lower prior highs” around 2055.00 offer natural support. But not already reacting up intraday from its test does keep the door wide open to extending lower Thursday morning to 2044.00 or 2041.00. Meanwhile, having trended down into Wednesday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon’s 2065.50 highs would form a “session-long rally” setup.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvxyv
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2068.25 | 2061.00 |
| …would target | 2073.25 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.25 | 2052.00 |
| …would target | 2053.25 | 2046.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.