Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Done, or done?
Intraday recovery retraced. But, what about reversed?
Perhaps it was nervousness over a fire at a Dubai hotel’s New Year’s celebration that triggered terrorism concerns. It also triggered a 14-point slide that retraced much of this morning’s 18-point rally from the 2039.00 renewed bias-down target up to almost 2055.00.
But was that just a knee-jerk reaction to the news? A later explosion nearby is probably responsible for producing fresh lows — under 2040.25 to 2039.00. Was that just a knee-jerk reaction, too?
Probably. Sellers didn’t gain traction when they could have. Despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour lows, the final hour wasn’t entered any lower. And that was despite having probed lower in the interim.
Still, another lower low would be credible for extending down to fresh session lows. Oversold RSIs at the 2037.00 low require an eventual retest, and it’s too late for counter-trend sponsorship. But back above 2043.50 would signal instead that the rubber band had stretched too far, and too late, and was snapping back up into the close.
Livestox Recording Dec 31, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. We covered a lot of ground, so be sure to devote necessary time to listening to reviewing the recording, at least twice tonight. Unless you have other plans, despite this being a weeknight… P.S. Happy New Year!
USO
GLD
RIG
CLF
HAL
TWTR
FEYE
GPRO
SUNE
ERBB
XON
FIT
ZYNE
TASR
DIS
SRNA
CARA
TURV
MDBX
GRNH
SPRWF
AMMJ
GWPH
MSRT
MCIG
LXRP
CANV
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s weaker open extended down to retest two-week old lows, all but confirming the pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785 remains underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-down to the lower-end of 2057.00-2061.50 provided a rubber band effect that snapped back up… to the range’s upper-end. Any lower would target 1039.00-1041.00. Any higher would make 1074.00‘s test likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s action was very reserved while Gold chopped around its support range, suggesting that Gold will lead the next leg.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Starting Thursday firmer only ranged narrowly sideways, keeping alive the potential for probing lower lows.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight stopped short of the pullback’s 36.00 limit before snapping back up Thursday morning to 37.80. The afternoon’s rig count triggered late weakness, but not enough to require the pullback to resume.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying sharply overnight filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, from which Wednesday’s gap down had formed Tuesday’s Island. Neutralizing its upside attraction no longer greeted EIA from a position of strength, but not reacting down all day does suggest the recovery’s momentum remains intact.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy New Year’s — Globex is closed until its regular Sunday night open at 6:00pm ET. See you then!
New Year’s Day
All Markets Closed
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2059.00 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2064.50 | 2057.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2050.25 | 2043.25 |
| …would target | 2044.75 | 2037.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.