Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jan 4 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Happy New Year! The moment of truth is upon us. To what degree were some Cannabis sector stocks pushed down or held back into year-end due to tax loss selling?
Those pressures are done. So, stock patterns matching the January Effect characteristics should start rising, if only because demand has less supply that it must absorb. Stocks that don’t rise this week are suspect.
The optimal January Effect candidate already bottomed into or out of Thanksgiving. Perhaps it blipped-down momentarily to a fresh low during December, but it’s already firming. Nevertheless, following are five new candidates to start the year:
CANN above .65 could rally 50%, but expanding volume is a must… CANV volume is already expanding into a 65% bounce last week, and above .29 could double from there… CARA needs to follow-through immediately on year-end strength to prove its corrective phase has ended… MINE has been sneaking higher since Thanksgiving’s low, and is vulnerable to suddenly surging on expanding volume… RMHB basically doubled since noon Wednesday and volume is attractive, so almost any follow-through could double again.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for January 4, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 13 | 13.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 10 | 10.00% |
| # down: | 77 | 77.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.140 | 0.290 | up |
| ARNA | 1.650 | 2.200 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.770 | down |
| CANV | 0.215 | 0.480 | down |
| CARA | 15.500 | 17.500 | up |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.023 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.003 | 0.006 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.010 | 0.017 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.470 | 2.860 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.125 | 0.260 | down |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.038 | 0.054 | up |
| GWPH | 61.550 | 75.650 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 26.400 | 34.950 | up |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRPD | 0.133 | 0.209 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.055 | up |
| MDBX | 0.003 | 0.033 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.029 | 0.068 | flat |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.036 | 0.048 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.008 | 0.026 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 1.800 | 3.350 | up |
| OGRMF | 0.510 | 0.920 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXISD | 2.250 | 4.750 | flat |
| PHOT | 0.004 | 0.014 | down |
| PLPL | 0.053 | 0.121 | down |
| PMCB | 0.019 | 0.058 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.037 | 0.073 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.325 | 0.450 | up |
| SRNA | 0.044 | 0.078 | down |
| STEV | 0.022 | 0.039 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.082 | 0.118 | down |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | up |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.330 | 0.830 | up |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.310 | 1.700 | up |
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Earnings are already being announced, but quarterly/annual season kicks off officially Monday with Alcoa (AA) after the close. Monday also offers another Fed speaker, only the second this year and since December’s rate hike. The market is examining their text closely for thinking on further rate hikes.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2049.50 | 2042.50 |
| …would target | 2056.00 | 2049.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2038.00 | 2031.00 |
| …would target | 2032.25 | 2025.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET ECEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s PMI data doesn’t usually influence price action. But its relevance is enhanced by being released ahead of the ISM number, which does have a reliable track record for influencing price action. And reactions to pre-open reports are often duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
2:00 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Well, that was a fun ride, good the last drop. The bounce from 2037.00 to almost 2055.00 was retraced and reversed to almost 2030.00. If that’s the product of day-end, week-end, and year-end low volume influences, then Monday’s open should gap up very much away from the late low. A post-close bounce back up to 2037.00 made that easier. Not gapping up on Monday, with volume expanding, would likely trend down a lot. An even funner ride!
Have a safe and happy New Year’s!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
ilinc/Mitel* || Anymeeting MP4
*We’re ending ilinc/Mitel, so the recording access may not be available.