Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery from 2007.00 probed gradually higher to form a Rising Wedge up to 2021.00. Having been entered aggressively, its exit should be aggressive, too. Which makes early strength credible for extending higher.
Right? Yes, it would have.
But rather than wait for the open, the pattern is already breaking higher pre-open. It just touched 2024.00. Immediate strength still would be credible to extend higher, but now that’s more difficult to do. And back under the 2019.00 area would start pointing down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhspfc
The First Trade… Marginalized sellers, yet?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up returned to the 2013.75 overnight high after having dipped pre-open to 2006.00-2007.00. The opening strength didn’t extend, and eventually capitulated back under 1996.00. That essentially filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, and essentially fulfilled the bearish WedEX. The noon hour’s bounce up to 2006.00-2007.00 was retraced back toward the low, and then recovered again into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The close’s recovery of 2006.00-2007.00 had extended 5 more points into the cash session close and 10 points by the 2016.00 futures close. That eventually extended to 2023.25 overnight, until Europe’s opens triggered a dive attacking 2006.00-2007.00. Now that is being recovered to 2020.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s late surge was targeting 2006.00-2007.00. Extending through it to whatever degree, even by 15-16 points to 2023.00, didn’t prevent dipping back down overnight to 2006.00-2007.00. Breaking under it would reinstate the retest of Friday’s 1991.00 low. That window remains open, but probably not past this morning as seasonal influences start inhibiting trending — if they haven’t already begun.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2006.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2007.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2012.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2018.00 would be likely to trigger the 2015.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2024.75 | 2015.00 |
| …would target | 2031.75 | 2022.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2016.50 | 2007.00 |
| …would target | 2011.25 | 2001.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s last surge got carried away with itself. Back above 1998.25 was already likely to end the afternoon’s slide from 2008.00. But the likely consequence was just gravitating up to 2006.00. Instead, the last half-hour trended up to 2012.00.
Post-close action surged to 2016.00.
New session highs were not likely. The morning’s range did hold as resistance. Without the late squeeze gaining traction for the effort, it only expended all available buying pressure. Retesting Friday’s 1991.00 low remains intact. More so, its retest should begin by gapping down to and through Monday’s lows.
Holiday seasonality is a wild card. There is time for a downdraft Tuesday before that seasonality tries to seal the lower-end of a range. And regardless of Monday closing at 2006.00, 2012.00 or 2016.00, retesting Friday’s 1991.00 range Tuesday is likely to begin by gapping down sharply. The alternative is to gap up above 2027.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbmrcv
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Saving for another rainy day.
Drifting back to session lows.
This morning’s low had essentially filled the gap back to Friday’s cash session close. That could have sufficed to launch a recovery. In, fact, the afternoon’s 2001.75 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2007.50 bias-up target was met.
Instead of extending higher, a reaction down fell under 2004.75 to signal momentum reversing. Fresh lows are likely since the interim bounce off of this morning’s low has proved to be “ineffectual optimism.” So, the morning’s 1995.75 low was just attacked to within 2 points.
But now another bounce is testing 2001.75. Fresh lows are being delayed — perhaps until earlier tomorrow when it’s easier to absorb them and reverse back up.