Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s firming extended Friday’s bounce back up to ~1.0950 higher prior lows. The decline should resume without further delay Tuesday if 1.0750-1.0785 remains in-play.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Sunday night extended through 1074.00 resistance Monday morning to attack 1081.50. Closing above 1077.70 would signal a new upleg underway.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night above the 14.10 area extended to test 14.35 resistance, whose recovery would signal a new upleg underway.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging Sunday night and Monday morning gravitated back up to Friday’s 156-26 highs. Closing above 157-04 would signal a new upleg underway.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows Sunday night failed to duplicate Friday’s recovery effort, gapping down Monday and spending the session essentially ranging in negative territory under all prior lows. This would prove to be “ineffectual pessimism” if Tuesday’s open were firm, and would be expected to trend up.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up to 1.82 resistance extended through the 1.85 buy signal and trended up to 1.94. A double top there on diverging RSIs won’t tolerate a pullback deeper than 1.85 to maintain the recovery.
Mid-day Update… That’s the least of it.
Gap back to Friday’s cash session essentially filled.
The bearish WedEX’s influence ultimately sent the morning down. It wasn’t simply from the open, but it was done. Essentially. Friday’s cash session close was attacked to within 1 point at this morning’s 1995.75 low.
And it’s all just noise within Friday’s last downleg.
The overnight and open highs attacked and tested Friday afternoon’s 2014.25 high, so neither end of the last downleg has been probed. If Friday’s actual 1994.00 and 1991.00 lows aren’t actually probed, then the lows haven’t actually held a test.
So, the pattern is no more bullish now than it was at Friday’s close.
Actually probing Friday’s low and recovering it would be more bullish, as holiday seasonality starts undermining sponsorship. That’s still possible, but it hasn’t yet been done. Bouncing anyway is possible, too, but not reliable.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue, Dec 22, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s GDP is high-profile, but has no track record of influencing price action. The housing sector data aren’t very influential independently, but announcing two sequentially does have potential to contradict each other and trigger a reaction..
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES2007.50 |
| Bias-up: above | 2011.25 | 2001.75 |
| …would target | 2017.00 | 2007.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2004.50 | 1995.00 |
| …would target | 1999.25 | 1989.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suspended animation.
Gap up not extending, or rejected.
The pre-open pullback to 2006.25 was recovered through the open to retest the 2013.75 overnight high. This morning’s 2014.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 1 tick, but never touched. It won’t be considered “unfinished business above” if never actually met.
But the 2014.75 bias-up target is in-play. This is a bias-up environment, since the 2005.25 bias-up signal triggered. A post-open dip attacked it to within 2 ticks, but didn’t break lower.
The bearish WedEX can influence price down anyway. But that should be triggered under 2009.25, if at all. Exiting the bias environment above its 2014.75 bias-up target could marginalize sellers through Christmas. Otherwise, filling the gap back down to Friday’s close remains outstanding.