Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A head & shoulders had formed off of the 2013.75 overnight high down to 2009.00. It has broken lower to its 100% extension at 2006.25, but still has potential to its 2004.50 161.8% and 2001.75 261.8% extensions. But the overnight pattern’s influence can overlap intraday action only through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And trending up through Friday afternoon’s 2014.25 high could point up for the morning, instead of down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcpyzx
The First Trade… Disaster averted?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Already down substantially to 2032.00 and 2025.00 through Thursday’s cash session and futures closes, Thursday night’s flat-to-lower ranging down to 2012.00 greeted Friday’s Quadruple Expiration open well off of Thursday’s 2073.00 highs. The session trended down to 1994.00 and 1991.00 through the cash session and futures closes. WedEX had inverted to bearish.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping up Sunday night to 1997.00-2001.00 ranged choppily flight-to-higher through Europe’s opens. A surge testing 2012.00 and attack on 2014.00 each were interrupted by dipping to 2009.00. Now another bounce attacking 2012.00 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern — just now breaking lower.
If, then…
Gapping up and trending up overnight — Is follow-through from Friday’s plunge hereby avoided? Three things to consider. 1) WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning, but not the period between them. Gapping up would still be vulnerable to trending down throughout the morning. That downtrending can bottom upon filling the gap back to Friday’s close when the bias environment begins lapsing. 2) Trending down into Friday’s close can be rejected by gapping up above Friday afternoon’s 2014.25 high to form a “session-long rally” setup. That would invalidate the WedEX. By the same token, rallying to the brink of session-long rally but not triggering would be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. And 3) exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment like gapping sharply is often a sentiment extreme… So, a morning-long drop back down to Friday’s lows is still likely, but that could form a durable bottom.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2014.75 bias-up target at 10:15, or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.75 would be likely to trigger the 2005.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2004.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link…
[FYI, OmniJoin’s new version recording process is untenable, taking much too long to download. I’ll find out Monday whether the original version’s instant recording format is still available. Meanwhile…]
CLICK HERE for the anymeeting link to view Globex in the chaRTroom.
The Universe, week of Dec 21 2015…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Of two timely picks the past two weeks, each continued higher, but only remains timely. INSY isn’t showing any new signs of accumulation. But SPRWF is has patiently avoided another 3rd day surge that might have ended its rally for awhile. Except for a couple of surges in MCIG, the rest of the pack shows little upside intention as tax loss selling season starts to end. Bah, humbug!
| Marijuana Stock Universe for December 21, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 12 | 12.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 8 | 8.00% |
| # down: | 80 | 80.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.140 | 0.290 | up |
| ARNA | 1.650 | 2.200 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.250 | 0.500 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.770 | down |
| CANV | 0.169 | 0.440 | down |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | up |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.023 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.003 | 0.006 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.015 | 0.025 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.470 | 2.860 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.125 | 0.260 | down |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| GWPH | 58.750 | 78.000 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 26.400 | 34.950 | up |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.180 | 0.280 | up |
| MCIG | 0.025 | 0.055 | flat |
| MDBX | 0.003 | 0.033 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.036 | 0.048 | up |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | flat |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.500 | 1.400 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.510 | 0.920 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.009 | 0.019 | down |
| PHOT | 0.004 | 0.014 | down |
| PLPL | 0.053 | 0.121 | down |
| PMCB | 0.072 | 0.098 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.040 | 0.088 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | up |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.220 | 0.330 | up |
| SRNA | 0.074 | 0.120 | down |
| STEV | 0.022 | 0.039 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.082 | 0.118 | down |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | up |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.070 | 0.260 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.060 | 1.440 | up |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 12/19/15) …
The Saturday Review focused on the WedEX signal that inverted to bearish. Its consequences for Monday have great consequences for the week, as holiday seasonality nears.
MP4 version
UserID: OmniJoin || Password: F12151
I added several January Effect candidates into the stock requests, which were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, LNKD, GS, GPRO, TWTR, FEYE, IMAX, GOOGLE, TSO, VLO
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 9:29:47 AM
good
iPhone (2) : 12/19/2015 9:30:08 AM
Gm
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:33:33 AM
are you speaking if so I have no sound
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:33:41 AM
gm
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:33:54 AM
very clear
ROD DAVID : 12/19/2015 9:33:55 AM
yes speaking
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 9:33:58 AM
audio is stil good
ROD DAVID : 12/19/2015 9:34:16 AM
Tom, do you want to retry logging in, or use the backup link?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:34:25 AM
ok I got it
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:38:17 AM
still clicking
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:50:04 AM
since this is a tipping point it might be still defended before breaking down or is it too late for that?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:53:43 AM
does it have to break on a closing basis
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:58:34 AM
if it breaks intraday then comes back into the channel is it likely to goto new dowmtrending resistance or revert back down
admin : 12/19/2015 10:00:20 AM
when the wed ex inverted does this mean big money had changed their mind?
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:04:19 AM
Please repeat what are you saying about 1949
admin : 12/19/2015 10:07:24 AM
we’ve talked aboout money managers chasing perfomance is it possible hedge fund liquidation could also be a big influence into the end of the year?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:07:54 AM
meaning they have received customer requests for redemptions
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:08:20 AM
big money influence into the holidays should be obvious by Tue morning?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:10:01 AM
does option strike price breaks for like the spx has been talked about cause more elling that we may of seen he last two days?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:10:11 AM
selling
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:10:48 AM
meaning if a big move happens it should be done by Tue morning?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:12:25 AM
they said when spx broke like 2016
admin : 12/19/2015 10:12:30 AM
yes
admin : 12/19/2015 10:13:10 AM
meant 2016 futures
admin : 12/19/2015 10:13:13 AM
ok
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:19:17 AM
indexes?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:19:21 AM
lnkd,gs
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:19:45 AM
better now
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:19:47 AM
yes
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:20:02 AM
I am fine
admin : 12/19/2015 10:20:12 AM
good
admin : 12/19/2015 10:23:44 AM
just going back to my question on the option stock price which i want to correct from 2016 futures to 2015 futures spx 2025, does this mean people at that strike have to sell and this brings more downside pressure that other technical levels are not revelant to trade?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:27:56 AM
big call options just bought on GPRO
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:28:49 AM
imax,googl
admin : 12/19/2015 10:29:22 AM
TSO,VLO
admin : 12/19/2015 10:35:13 AM
some of the the commodity stocks would not be jan candidates?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:44:13 AM
could you answer my other question about option strike price
admin : 12/19/2015 10:46:53 AM
what about some of the dow stocks?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:48:35 AM
thanks
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:49:58 AM
clicking is somewhat annoying but not a deal killer for the platform
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:50:27 AM
no, it’s when you’re speaking
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:50:30 AM
no – when u talk it appears
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:52:10 AM
looking at transports vs spx quite a divergence.
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:52:40 AM
NQ is outperforming somewhat?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:52:47 AM
what about the russell?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:53:04 AM
does it play any relevance?
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:53:17 AM
thx much
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:53:49 AM
thanks
admin : 12/19/2015 10:54:21 AM
thanks
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:54:36 AM
thx