Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… And video for Crude, Gold & Silver.
Another recovery effort failed, albeit only by a drift lower.
Click here to view a late-morning overview we did of Crude Oil and Precious Metals – Gold & Silver (we’ll do frankincense and myrrh next week). Crude Oil was testing its bounce limit, which doesn’t now seem like it will be recovered by the close.
This morning’s bounce could have rejected the bias-down by recovering 2018.00. The bounce touched 2018.00, and trended down from there to 2001.50.
WedEX has inverted to bearish. Its only requirement on Friday is that bounces fail. Monday is the aggressive follow-through if Friday’s minimum requirement is fulfilled.
This afternoon’s 2008.00 bias-down signal was being overlapped within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its 2001.50 target was met already to within 1 point. It can be probed more thoroughly. Nothing prevents trending down under it, but that’s not required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 21, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Chicago Fed survey is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2026.00 | 2016.00 |
| …would target | 2033.00 | 2023.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2018.00 | 2008.00 |
| …would target | 2011.50 | 2001.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Done selling, or stick another fork in it?
Target me, supports held, last gasp recovery attempt in process.
The pre-open surge that attacked 2030.00 was reversed back under 2027.00 to greet the open at 2022.00. The initial extension hesitated above the 2015.25 bias-down signal, but never recovered.
Bias-down triggered late, its grace period invoked by a 7-1/2 point bounce to 2018.00. Refueled sellers quickly probed the 2008.75 bias-down target by 6 ticks.
Nothing requires the bias-down target to hold its test, nor prevents the decline from extending. But probing above 2011.00 (being tested now) would likely develop into an upleg.
A recovery is possible for having neutralized the attraction back down to the Fri-Mon Island’s 2008.00-2014.50 “lower prior highs.” Their complete recovery isn’t yet done. Having fulfilled the bias-down target, exiting the bias environment above the bias signal’s 2018.00 prior high would help to confirm momentum has reversed up.
And that would play right into the hands of a bullish WedEX. A WedEX that the morning’s bias-down signal has threatened to invert, if not rejected at the bias environment’s exit.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
We spent a lot of time discussing the potential bullishness of having neutralized the outstanding retest of the Fri-Mon Island’s 2008.00-2014.50 “lower prior highs.” We discussed reversing the two negative stimuli of falling Yen and Crude Oil .
Then the Tour ended while a break higher began testing 2027.00 resistance whose recovery could race higher through the open to isolate yesterday’s post-close selling and suggest a bullish WedEX remains intact. It’s now attacking the quite relevant 2030.00 pullback limit from yesterday.
Or, not… Post-open action won’t have much excuse for delaying extending higher, not unless the pre-open surge is only a head-fake — similar to last night’s Yen ation.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwbtvv